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Gold futures plunge below $1,165, erasing all gains for 2015

Written By Unknown on Sabtu, 07 Maret 2015 | 08.10

Investing.com - Investing.com -- Gold suffered its biggest loss in the calendar year on Friday after better than expected data from the monthly U.S. jobs report and a stronger dollar deepened concerns that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates by June.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold future prices for April delivery fell $32.40 or 2.71% to $1,163.80 a troy ounce in U.S. afternoon trading. It marked the steepest decline in gold future prices since December, 2013.

Previously, the biggest drop of the year came on Jan. 29 when gold futures plunged $31.30 to close at $1,255.90.

The decline on Friday erased all of the gains in gold futures for 2015, as it closed on the final day of trading last year at $1,184 an ounce.

Coincidentally, investors unloaded the precious metal in late-January after the Fed released a statement that the economy had been expanding at a solid pace and that it would remain patient in deciding when to increase its benchmark rate. Prices for gold futures had fluctuated between $1,194.60 and $1,223 since Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's dovish testimony before Congress on Feb. 24.

At Yellen's semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony on Capitol Hill, she indicated that the Fed could consider an interest rate hike on a "meeting by meeting" basis if economic conditions improved and inflation moved toward its target rate of 2%. The Fed could alter its monetary policy stance when the Federal Open Market Committee meets next on Mar. 17-18.

Higher interest rates are a troubling sign for gold, which struggles to compete with yield-bearing investment strategies when the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy. The yield on 10-year U.S. treasuries increased 6.91% or 0.146 to 2.256 on Friday. For the year, the treasury notes are up nearly 15%.

The U.S. added 295,000 jobs in February, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than 55,000 above forecasts for the month and January's figure of 239,000. Employment growth, meanwhile, has averaged 288,000 over the last three months, as the current unemployment rate fell from 5.7 to 5.5%.

Data concerning wage growth was less promising, as weekly hourly wages inched up three cents from January and 2% from this point last year. The Fed would like to see improved figures in terms of wage growth if it decides to raise interest rates, Yellen added at last month's testimony.

The jobs report pushed the U.S. dollar broadly forward against a basket of currencies, as the U.S. Dollar Index soared 1.36% or 1.31 to 97.71.The euro also reached an 11-year low against the dollar for the third consecutive day, dropping 1.62% or 0.178 to 1.0850. The euro is down more than 10% against the U.S. dollar this year.

A strengthening dollar affects dollar-denominated commodities like gold by making it more expensive for holders of other currencies to purchase the metal.

The decline, however, paled in comparison from the sell off on April 15, 2013 when gold lost $140.30 or 9.3% to close at $1,361.10.

Silver futures, meanwhile, for May delivery also fell 0.35 or 2.17% to trade at 15.81 a troy ounce.

Copper delivery for May decreased 0.044 or 1.65% to $2.609 a pound.

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CFTC - Commitments of Traders: speculators more bearish on GBP, JPY, CAD

Investing.com - Investing.com - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission released its weekly Commitments of Traders report for the week ending March 3 on Friday.

Speculative positioning in the CME currency, commodity and index futures:

Long Short
Net Prior Change Gross Change Gross Change
EUR -172.4k -177.7k 5.3k 48.5k 3.0k 220.9k -2.4k
GBP -26.9k -21.9k -5.0k 44.6k -2.2k 71.5k 2.9k
JPY -52.5k -47.5k -5.0k 33.9k 2.3k 86.5k 7.3k
CHF -6.1k -5.1k -1.0k 7.0k 1.8k 13.1k 2.8k
CAD -38.9k -36.2k -2.6k 24.3k 1.9k 63.2k 4.5k
AUD -61.5k -63.2k 1.6k 13.7k -1.9k 75.2k -3.6k
NZD -1.4k -4.3k 3.0k 14.6k 3.5k 16.0k 0.5k
MXN -43.4k -48.3k 4.9k 31.4k -2.7k 74.8k -7.6k
S&P -4.2k 24.2k -28.4k 466.2k 21.9k 470.4k 50.3k
Gold 115.8k 126.2k -10.4k 180.6k -3.9k 64.7k 6.5k
Silver 31.2k 37.3k -6.1k 56.3k -1.0k 25.1k 5.1k
Copper -22.8k -30.3k 7.5k 51.0k 0.7k 73.9k -6.8k
RUB 5.2k 3.0k 2.3k 8.3k 3.4k 3.0k 1.1k

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Euro falls below 1.10 against USD, as ECB announces the start of QE

Written By Unknown on Jumat, 06 Maret 2015 | 08.10

Investing.com - Investing.com -- The euro fell to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar in more than 11 years, as the European Central Bank announced plans on Thursday that it will start its highly-anticipated bond buying program next week.

EUR/USD slipped below 1.10 for the first time since 2003, before rallying slightly in U.S. afternoon trading to 1.1027 (-0.46%). At one point on Thursday, the euro reached an 11-year low of 1.0987. Thursday's decline marked the first six-day losing streak for the pair in more than a year.

In Cyprus, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi announced that the central bank will begin its quantitative easing program on Mar. 9, as expected. The €60 billion a month asset purchasing program will last until September, 2016 or beyond if the central bank does not approach its target inflation rate of 2%, Draghi said.

In addition, economists from the central bank estimated that the economy in the euro zone will grow 1.5% in 2015, 1.9% in 2016 and 2.1% in 2017. Furthermore, ECB economists expect that inflation in the euro zone will remain unchanged this year, increase by 1.5% next year and by 1.8% in 2017.

Bond buying programs, such as quantitative easing, are pursued by policymakers as a way of stimulating the economy by driving up the market price of bonds. When bond prices increase, yields decrease lowering the rates for mortgages and other loans.

One far-reaching implication of printing vast quantities of a currency is that it drives down its value against other currencies on the foreign exchange market.

The central bank will also purchase bonds that contain a negative yield, Draghi added, as long as they don't fall below a rate of negative 0.2%.

In the United States, meanwhile, traders awaited the release of Friday's monthly job report for the month of February. On Thursday, the U.S. Labor Department said the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment increased to the highest level since May. Unemployment filings for the week that ended Feb. 28 rose by 7,000 last week to a seasonally-adjusted total of 320,000.

A strong job report could push the euro down against the dollar even further.

"Even if rates just creep higher in the U.S., the euro could get slammed," Stephen Gallo, head of European currency strategy at Bank Of Montreal, told the Wall Street Journal. "I forecast 1.0850 in a week or so if it's a strong report.'

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U.S. stock markets avoid first three-day losing streak since early-January

Investing.com - Investing.com -- Stocks on Thursday afternoon inched higher to reverse previous losses, as U.S. markets avoided their first three-day losing streak since early-January.

Led by gains in the utilities, financials and health care, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite index and the S&P 500 all closed higher ahead of the release of Friday's U.S. jobs report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.21% or 38.82 to close at 18,135.72. On Monday, the Dow traded at a record level before falling back over the last two days.

The NASDAQ Composite index, meanwhile, increased 0.32% or 15.67 to close at 4,982.81. At the start of the week, the NASDAQ moved above the 5,000 level for the first time in 15 years.

After finishing lower on five of the last six trading days, the S&P 500 reversed the trend on Thursday as it gained 2.51 or 0.12% to close at 2,101.04.

The information technology sector, however, closed down 0.12% as billionaire investor Mark Cuban made waves by asserting that today's tech bubble is comparatively worse than one that rankled markets in the early 2000s.

"Back then the companies the general public was investing in were public companies. They may have been horrible companies, but being public meant that investors had liquidity to sell their stocks," the Dallas Mavericks' owner wrote on his internet blog. "The bubble today comes from private investors who are investing in apps and small tech companies…There is zero liquidity for any of those investments. None. Zero. Zip."

The top performer on the Dow Jones Industrial Average was Wal-Mart Stores Inc (NYSE:WMT), which gained 1.22% or 1.00 to 83.59. The worst performer was McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD) which fell back after posting gains on Wednesday when the company announced that it would only use Chicken raised without antibiotics. McDonald's fell 1.27% to 98.98.

On the NASDAQ Composite index, the top performer was Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:VRTX) which gained 5.76% or 6.91 to close at 126.96, following a report from the Financial Times that the Boston-based pharmaceutical company is on the verge of gaining FDA approval on a drug for treatment of cystic fibrosis. The worst performer, meanwhile, was Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), which fell 1.66% or 2.13 to 126.41.

The top performer on the S&P 500 was Kroger Company (NYSE:KR), which rose 7.05% or 4.91 to 74.56 after reporting $1.7 billion in profits in 2014. The nation's largest supermarket chain reported a 13.8% increase in profits from the previous year, following its acquisition of North Carolina-based grocer Harris-Teeter. Kroger also reported a 5.2% increase in identical store sales, which excludes acquisitions, new or closed stores and fuel costs.

The worst performer was AbbVie Inc (NYSE:ABBV), which lost 5.64% or 3.40 to 56.87, after reports surfaced that the Chicago-based pharmaceutical company is expected to acquire Pharmacyclics Inc (NASDAQ:PCYC) in a $21 billion acquisition. The deal will give AbbVie Inc. access to Imbuvica, one of the world's top selling blood cancer drugs.

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Oil prices fall sharply amid record inventories

Written By Unknown on Kamis, 05 Maret 2015 | 08.10

Investing.com - Investing.com -- Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday after U.S. data indicated that oil supplies nationwide reached the highest level ever, aggravating concerns that an even steeper drop could be imminent.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude oil for April delivery fell 1.46% or 0.74 to $49.78 a barrel in U.S. afternoon trading.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its weekly report that crude oil inventories rose by 10.3 million barrels for the week that ended Feb. 26, marking the largest weekly increase since 2002. Weekly inventory increases have been the norm of late. A week earlier, U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 8.4 million barrels for the week that ended Feb. 19 – more than doubling forecasts of a 4.0 million weekly increase.

At the Cushing Oil Hub in Oklahoma, inventory levels have reached 49.2 million barrels, a 53% increase from the weekly level at this time last year. The current level at the nation's largest hub for WTI crude oil is only 2.5 million barrels below the storage facility's all-time record high. It has been estimated by analysts that Cushing could reach full capacity as early as next month – raising fears that WTI crude could drop to as low as $20 a barrel.

Meanwhile, brent oil prices for April delivery on Wednesday dropped 2.25% or 1.37 points to $59.65 a barrel. The mid-week slide underscored a period of recent volatility where daily oil prices have moved more than 2% in an up or down direction in 27 of the last 40 trading days.

The spread between brent and WTI crude in afternoon trading hovered in between $9.76 and $9.87 a barrel. Earlier on Monday, the spread reached $13 a barrel.

ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson said Wednesday at the company's annual investor conference that he expects oil prices to remain low for the next two years because of large global supply. ExxonMobil has lowered its long-term production guidance forecast to a 2-year outlook because of long-term instability.

Elsewhere, natural gas futures for April delivery were up 1.99% or 0.055 to 2.768 per MMBtu, marking its fifth daily increase in the last 10 days.

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Dow records first triple-digit drop since Jan., as stocks fall broadly

Investing.com - Investing.com -- Stocks fell broadly on U.S. markets on Wednesday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its first triple-digit drop in more than six weeks following the release of a flurry of mixed economic data.

In U.S. morning trading, stocks on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell approximately 175 points before rallying slightly in the afternoon after the U.S. Services Sector reported its highest activity level since October. The Dow closed down for the second straight day, falling 0.58% or 106.47 points to 18,096.90.

Meanwhile, the NASDAQ Composite index dropped for the second consecutive day after cracking the 5,000 barrier on Monday and the S&P 500 index closed down for the fifth time in six days. The NASDAQ Composite index fell 0.26% or 12.76 to 4,967.14, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.44% or 9.25 to 2,098.53.

On the S&P 500, nine out of 10 sectors experienced declines as health care was the only sector on the index to close higher on Wednesday. Stocks in the telecommunication services, consumer staples and industrials sectors were among the worst performers of the session.

The top performer on the Dow Jones Industrial Average was UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH), which rose 0.91% or 1.03 to 113.89. McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD), meanwhile, gained 0.49% to close at 100.23, after the company announced a new policy to use only Chicken raised without antibiotics. The worst performer was American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) which dropped 1.54% or 1.26 to close at 80.65. Caterpillar Inc (NYSE:CAT), also fell 1.36% or 1.26 to 81.71 after its price estimate was revised following weak demand for machinery and equipment in the global mining sector.

On the NASDAQ Composite index, the top performer was SanDisk Corporation (NASDAQ:SNDK), which rose 4.92% or 3.89 to 82.98 following the company's announcement on its new all-flash storage platform a day earlier. The new technology will allow SanDisk to cut prices for its storage platforms by approximately 50%, the company said. The worst performer on Wednesday was Fastenal Company (NASDAQ:FAST), which fell 3.24% or 1.33 to 39.77.

The biggest performer on the S&P 500 was Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE:BMY), which closed up more than 6% after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved its drug Opdivo to treat lung cancer. It marked the first time the FDA approved an immunotherapy drug for lung cancer. Bristol-Myers Squibb rose 3.77 points on Wednesday to close at 65.69. The worst performer, meanwhile, was CONSOL Energy Inc (NYSE:CNX), which dropped 4.37% or 1.39 points to 30.39.

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AUD/USD moves higher after Australian central bank keeps rates constant

Written By Unknown on Rabu, 04 Maret 2015 | 08.10

Investing.com - Investing.com -- The Australian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday following a surprising decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to keep interest rates constant.

AUD/USD moved 0.66% or 0.0051 higher to 0.7817. Earlier on Tuesday, the pair reached a one-month high of 0.7842.

The pair was likely to gain support at 0.7797, the low from January 31 and resistance at 0.8225, the high from January 10.

Weak demand in domestic growth, a gradually higher unemployment rate and subdued labor costs influenced the RBA board's decision to leave the rate unchanged at 2.25%. If the RBA lowered interest rates, it would have marked the second consecutive meeting in which it eased monetary policy.

"Having eased monetary policy at the previous meeting, it was appropriate to hold interest rates steady for the time being," RBA governor Glenn Stevens said in a statement. "Further easing of policy may be appropriate over the period ahead, in order to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation consistent with the target. The Board will further assess the case for such action at forthcoming meetings."

While the RBA has seen increases in credit lending to home buyers, it remains concerned by a sharp rise in home prices.

"The Bank is working with other regulators to assess and contain risks that may arise from the housing market," Mr. Stevens said in the statement. "In other asset markets, prices for equities and commercial property have risen, in part as a result of declining long-term interest rates."

The RBA made the announcement in advance of Wednesday's release of GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2014. Analysts have lowered forecasts of annual growth in the Australian economy to 2.3% down from previous estimates of 2.5.

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Crude Oil rises sharply during Netanyahu's address to Congress

Investing.com - Investing.com -- Oil prices surged on Tuesday, moving up sharply during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's address in front of Congress, before falling slightly back, as futures continued on a volatile path.

On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, prices for April deliveries of brent crude oil rose 1.73% or 1.04 to $61.23 a barrel during American trading. During Netanyahu's highly-anticipated speech in front of a Joint Session of Congress, the price of oil jumped more than a dollar from $60.97 a barrel to a daily-high of $62.52.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the price of WTI crude oil for delivery in April gained 0.92% or 0.46 to $50.29 a barrel. A day earlier, WTI crude opened trading for the month of March down 0.14 points or 0.28% to $49.62 a barrel.

In a forceful denunciation of Iran, Netanyahu made reference to purported Iranian efforts to gain a foothold in Yemen to help build its oil reserves. If the Shiite-backed Houthi-led movement in Yemen is successful, Netanyahu added, Iran could gain a "chokepoint" on the Bab al Mandeb Strait located at the southern tip of Yemen. In combination with the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, the occupation of the Bab al Mandeb Strait would give Iran "a second chokepoint on the world's oil supply," Netanayahu said.

Further sanctions against Iran could squeeze the nation's oil exports, Netanyahu added.

Elsewhere, prices moved up amid expectations that Saudi Arabia could raise its official selling price for crude oil loading for Asian buyers. Traders polled by Platts expect an increase in Arab Light OSP by "70 cents to $1.30 a barrel," for April delivery.

The forecasts were released shortly before King Salman, the new king of Saudi Arabia, announced several subtle changes among the nation's energy policymaker team on Tuesday. Of the changes, the king's most notable move was the promotion of his son Prince Adulaziz bin Salman from deputy oil minister to assistant oil minister – a position he held for numerous years before ascending to his current position.

Meanwhile, a prominent oil trader reversed his hedge fund's bearish stance on crude oil prices in a letter to investors. "The only question is how long it will take for these prices to work their magic," Astenbeck Capital Management co-founder Andrew Hall wrote in the hedge fund's March Investor Letter. "We think it might happen more quickly than many expect."

Hall disagrees with forecasts that WTI crude could remain in the range of $45-$50 a barrel on a long-term basis.

"For that reason we have closed out all of our bearish betas and have started adding to our bullish ones," Hall wrote. "We might be premature but think the chance of seeing new lows for oil prices – other than possibly at the very front of the WTI curve is relatively small."

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Budget 2015 a mixed bag for Realty

Written By Unknown on Selasa, 03 Maret 2015 | 08.10

While most of their expectations have remained just a wish-list, the one big positive the sector took home was a tax overhaul for REITs

Real estate developers have mixed reactions to Budget 2015. While most of their expectations have remained just a wish-list, the one big positive the sector took home was a tax overhaul for REITs reports CNBC-TV18's Poornima Murali and Alexander Mathew.

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NASDAQ clears 5,000 barrier, while Dow hits record-high on Monday

Investing.com - Investing.com -- The NASDAQ Composite index cracked the 5,000 barrier for the first time in 15 years, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record-high Monday, on the first day of trading for the month of March.

Led by gains in technology and consumer discretionary sectors, stocks were up broadly on U.S. equities markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.86% or 155.93 to 18,288.63, while the S&P 500 rose 0.61% or 12.89 to 2,117.39.

The NASDAQ Composite index reached the 5,000 mark in morning trading, before closing at 5,008.10 -- marking only the third time the index has closed above 5,000 ever. The NASDAQ gained 44.57 or 0.90% on the day.

Large yearly increases among a number of technology stocks have spurred the gains since the start of the new year. Over the last 52-weeks, consumer electronics giant Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), analog electronics company Avago Technologies Limited (NASDAQ:AVGO) and video game publisher and distributor Electronic Arts Inc (NASDAQ:EA). have all recorded gains of at least 70 percent. Apple, in particular, has been responsible for driving up growth. While the NASDAQ 100 Inflation Adjusted Chart has increased approximately 5.6% annually, the NASDAQ 100 is up only 2.8% discounting the gains factored in from Apple.

Also on Monday, NXP Semiconductors NV (NASDAQ:NXPI) went up by more than 15%, as news broke of the Dutch company's acquisition of Austin-based Freescale Semiconductor Ltd (NYSE:FSL), a former spin-off of Motorola (NYSE:MSI). NXP Semiconductors NV, which finished as the biggest gainer on the NASDAQ Composite index on Monday, gained 14.67 points or 17.27% to 99.56. The new company has been valued at more than $40 billion combined.

The worst performer on the NASDAQ Composite index, meanwhile, was Celgene Corporation (NASDAQ:CELG), which fell 0.85% or 1.03 to 120.50.

On the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the biggest performer was Visa Inc (NYSE:V), which rose 2.49% or 6.75 to 278.06, after Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) announced a deal that will replace American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) with Visa and Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) as its exclusive credit card provider. International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) was the worst performer, falling 0.94% or 1.52 to 160.42.

The biggest performer on the S&P 500 index was GameStop Corp (NYSE:GME), which rose 4.60% or 1.7 points to 38.67. The worst performer on Monday was Genworth Financial Inc. (NYSE:GNW), which dropped 5.42% or 0.42 points to 7.33, after the company admitted in regulatory filings of suffering additional losses of $44 million from a calculating error.

Also on Monday, Lumber Liquidators Holdings Inc (NYSE:LL), a Virginia-based retailer of hardwood flooring, dropped sharply after the airing of an investigative report Sunday night on the CBS News magazine 60 Minutes. The report alleged that Lumber Liquidators purchased wholesale amounts of laminated wood flooring containing dangerous levels of formaldehyde from several of its Chinese suppliers, according to 60 Minutes. In response, Lumber Liquidators criticized CBS News for what it described as using "an improper test method" in its reporting, that is not included in California law requirements.

Lumber Liquidators fell 25.13% or 13.03 points to 38.83.

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Chelsea outmuscle Tottenham to win League Cup

Written By Unknown on Senin, 02 Maret 2015 | 08.10

LONDON (Reuters) - Chelsea overpowered London rivals Tottenham Hotspur 2-0 in the Capital One League Cup final at a rain-swept Wembley on Sunday to lift the first silverware of the English season.

Spurs dominated the early stages but John Terry put Chelsea ahead just before halftime, firing the ball home from close range after Tottenham had failed to deal with a free kick.

The Premier League leaders doubled their lead after 56 minutes when Diego Costa's fierce cross shot took a big deflection off defender Kyle Walker and flew past helpless goalkeeper Hugo Lloris.

Chelsea comfortably dealt with Tottenham's rare forays forward and victory completed a perfect day for them following Manchester City's defeat at Liverpool which left Jose Mourinho's team five points clear at the top of the league table.

(Reporting by Ian Chadband; editinmg by Ed Osmond)


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Mighty Terry inspires Chelsea to League Cup glory

By Ian Chadband

John Terry embellished his status to Chelsea fans as "captain, leader, legend" by scoring the goal that set his side on the way to a 2-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur in the Capital One Cup final at a rain-sodden Wembley on Sunday.

The former England captain was once again a quite inspirational presence for the club that adores him as he defended like a lion and scored a 45th-minute goal to ease Chelsea nerves before Kyle Walker's deflected own goal from a Diego Costa shot settled the final in the 56th minute. It meant an ecstatic Terry lifting the League Cup 10 years since he first did so under Jose Mourinho's watch -- and just as in the last reign of 'The Special One', he will be hopeful that it signals an era of supremacy for the west London club.

It capped a perfect day for Chelsea, which may effectively have seen them claim two trophies, after their nearest Premier League title challengers Manchester City lost at Liverpool.

They are now five points clear with a game in hand and Mourinho, fresh from ending his personal drought of not having won any trophy for three years, still has a treble in his lofty sights with the Champions League also on the agenda.

There could be no argument about Chelsea's superiority against a side who thrashed them on New Year's Day even though Spurs had the better of a poor first half in which the one moment of real quality was when Christian Eriksen's free kick for Spurs rattled Petr Cech's bar.

Most interest seemed to stem from Costa's desire to enjoy a war with everything that moved until Branislav Ivanovic was awarded a free kick on the right wing just before halftime, skillfully controlling Terry's aimless hoiked effort towards the touchline and drawing the foul from Nacer Chadli.

From Willian's free kick, chaos reigned as Danny Rose failed to clear, the ball deflected to Terry and his shot struck Eric Dier to leave Hugo Lloris helpless.

As the rain careered down after the break, Cesc Fabregas found Costa on the left edge of the box and his shot-cum-cross took a cruel deflection off Walker, beating hapless Spurs keeper Lloris on his near post.

Tottenham's efforts to conjure a response were fairly soggy, with Eden Hazard and Fabregas coming closest to adding to the lead, and even when they did threaten, the immaculate Terry made a superb intervention to block Harry Kane.

Mourinho's sentimental side then shone through as he brought Didier Drogba on in the 93rd minute, reuniting the three survivors of the 2005 triumph, Drogba, Terry and Cech.

(Editing by Ed Osmond)


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Economic Survey

Written By Unknown on Minggu, 01 Maret 2015 | 08.10

Published on Sat, Feb 28,2015 | 22:38, Updated at Sat, Feb 28 at 22:38Source : Moneycontrol.com 

The Economic Survey for 2014-15 has painted an optimistic picturefor India, pegging the FY16 GDP growth at 8.1-8.5%. Ranen Banerjee, Partner (Public Finance and Urban) at PwC India shares his views and analysis..

Economic Survey

Despite the decline in the rate of gross domestic saving from 33.9% of the GDP in 2011-12 to 30.6% in 2013-14 and in the rate of investment from 38.2% in 2011-12 to 32.3% in 2013-14 and the decline in the primary sectors particularly agriculture from 3.7% to 1.1%, Survey remains optimistic about achieving a growth of 8.1-8.5% in the next year as against the existing 7.4%. It has kept the hope of achieving double digit growth in the medium term with high probability. While survey admits that the previous year's growth was almost purely a domestic demand driven growth, it is not understood how a declining primary sector, unless the rain revives it, would provide the much needed demand for the manufacturing sector in this stagnating external environment. The optimism in economic survey rests not just on the anticipated revival of animal spirits in manufacturing and services sectors thrust by Government's reform agenda and public investment (particularly in railways), but also from benign macro-economic conditions, fuel prices, inflation and favourable monsoons. Global fuel prices have become such volatile to pin the hopes of an economy!

Survey also puts a great deal of emphasis on reviving investments to achieve the growth path. Survey estimates that the total stock of stalled projects stands at Rs. 8.8 lakh crore or 7% of GDP. Survey presumes that an easing of monetary policy on the back of benign macro economic conditions can remove the credit constraints facing the private sector, while speedy regulatory clearances and reorientation and restructuring of the PPP model would enhance public investment. It is worth mentioning that NPAs of the banking sector have increased from 4.1 % in March 2014 to 4.5 % in September 2014 in just two quarters. Further five subsectors, viz. Infrastructure, Textiles, Iron & Steel, Mining and Aviation hold 54% of total stressed advances of Public Sector Banks. Revival of investments depends also to a great extent on the banks' ability to reschedule some of these NPAs and in tapping alternative sources of financing. Survey has rightly emphasised the need for "skilling India" for "Make in India" to happen and cautions that Indian growth should balance the nation's comparative advantage in availability of low skilled labour with skill development required by future generations to take advantage of lost opportunities. Expanding the manufacturing sector to tap in the unskilled labour can only be wished for and is a distant possibility.

Survey is optimistic about achieving targeted fiscal deficits in the coming years. While fuel subsidies have come down, the food subsidy bill (upto January, 2015) stands at a whopping Rs. 107,823 crore during 2014-15 (or almost 1% of the GDP), showing an increase of 20% over previous year - the highest ever growth in the past five years.  This year also, as in previous years, the Survey has stood against price and product subsidies which are regressive in nature, benefitting mostly the richer amongst the poor and instead voted for income transfers. Survey has put its weight behind the JAM Number Trinity-Jan Dhan Yojana, Aadhaar and Mobile numbers- that would allow the State to deliver the subsidies to poor in a targeted and less distorted manner.

It is refreshing to see that for creation of National Common Market in Agricultural Commodities, survey has gone to the extent of suggesting liberalization in FDI in retail (which could create possibilities for filling in the massive investment and infrastructure deficit in supply chain inefficiencies), along with modification to the APMC controls through constitutional amendments.   

We eagerly await the budget announcements to see if any of the levers indicated by the Survey are being pushed by the Government.


08.10 | 0 komentar | Read More

Round table: Experts dissect Jaitley's Budget 2015

Amid many hopes, the Narendra Modi government today delivered its first full Budget that experts said carried several ideas that would kickstart growth, drive investment and boost infrastructure even though according to many, it fell short of being called as a 'big bang' Budget.

To obtain a consummate view on the Budget and the announcements therein, CNBC-TV18's Shereen Bhan spoke with a star panel of guests.

"For me, the Budget was about the plug-and-play model," veteran investment banker Ashok Wadhwa of Ambit said, referring to Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's announcement that the government would set up four ultra mega power plants using the model in which it would clear all prior permissions before handing it over to an interested party.

Beyond the plug-and-play model, which the government has indicated it is keen to expand beyond the four UMPPs, the government led a definite thrust on boosting India's creaky infrastructure, increasing as much as Rs 70,000 crore in public investments.

"The outlay for roads is three times. The provision for railways is starkly higher," former Infosys VP and Manipal Group chairman Mohandas Pai said. "Once there are improvements in the supply chain, we will see a tremendous improvement in productivity," he added.

In order to be able to invest more into infrastructure, FM Jaitley had to compromise a bit on the fiscal deficit, outlining that the deficit for the next year would fall from 4.1 percent this year to 3.9 percent next, higher than the 3.6 percent estimated earlier.

But even as the FM has presented a credible fiscal consolidation roadmap, aiming to reduce it to 3 percent in three years, Goldman Sachs MD Tushar Poddar pointed out that the deficit picture combined for states and centre stood at a high 6 percent.

"Even if the deficit had been kept at 3.6 percent, India's state plus central deficit combined would still have been higher than 70 percent of its peers," ratings firm Moody's Senior VP Atsi Sheth pointed out.

"However, the number is not that important. [What is important is] there is a roadmap. Policies that underpin the Budget [need to be seen]," she added.

The Budget strikes a pragmatic balance between deficit and growth, ICICI Bank MD and CEO Chanda Kochhar, observed. "Initial public investment is required to kickstart the investment cycle."

If infrastructure was one theme, the second one was tax, where the Budget outlined several major changes.

"India has never had a more stable tax policy. The Budget clearly explained what the government thinks on tax policy," Sudhir Kapadia, National Tax Leader, Ernst & Young, said.

Among the key decisions, the FM today announced reduction in the corporate tax rate from 30 percent currently to 25 percent over four years starting FY17, while at the same time phasing out the discretionary tax exemptions that are granted to various industries.

"Also, the 15 percent tax projections made in the Budget is realistic," Kapadia said, adding that it would result in less pressure on tax officials who have in the past been accused of being too aggressive in order to achieve stiff targets.

"Absolutely, tax terrorism will end," Pai, indicating to the slew of tax disputes that have arisen over the past few years, said.

But Goldman's Tushar Poddar pointed out that the government still needs to widen its direct tax base and the Budget did not announce any robust steps to do that. India's tax-collections-to-GDP ratio stands at an abysmal 17 percent, lower than Kenya and Namibia.

On the issue of black money, the FM's decision to introduce strict laws to counter the menace of black money was criticized strongly by Congress spokesperson Anand Sharma, who said laws such as the PMLA and FEMA were enough to tackle the issue, and pointed to the fact a Supreme Court-monitored probe into black money was already under way on the basis of current laws, which needed to be enforced well.

Pai agreed with Sharma's view and added that given the proposed laws draconian appearance, they could give rise to harassment.

But Ashok Wadhwa differed, saying the compliances that the proposed laws required, it would "take a very brave man" to evade taxes.

Finally, Supreme Court Senior Advocate Harish Salve said the government's decision to devolve 62 percent of taxes to states was a game-changer. "It is a truly federal budget."

But Congress' Sharma pointed out that the 14th Finance Commission -- whose devolution recommendation the NDA government accepted – was appointed by the UPA government.

He further pointed out that the Budget had slashed majorly from plan expenditure and the central assistance to states, and attacked the devolution claim by saying that the Swacch Bharat and clean energy cess would go to centre and not cess.

"It is an anti-poor Budget. Allocations for women, SC, ST and even on education have come down," he said.


08.10 | 0 komentar | Read More
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