Crude falls on profit taking, Chinese inflation data

Investing.com - Investing.com - Crude futures edged lower on Friday as investors sold the commodity for profits after locking in gains on Ukraine tensions and jumped to the sidelines to await fresh news to steer prices higher or lower.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude Oil for delivery in June traded at $99.90 a barrel during U.S. trading, down 0.36%. New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of $99.87 a barrel and a high of $101.15 a barrel.

The June contract settled down 0.51% at $100.26 a barrel on Thursday.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at $98.75 a barrel, the low from May 1, and resistance at $101.15 a barrel, the session high.

Concerns that Ukraine is descending into civil war have pushed up oil prices in recent sessions, as fears persist the conflict could disrupt shipments from Russia, the world's second-largest exporter after Saudi Arabia.

In Europe earlier, pro-Russia separatists in eastern Ukraine ignored a public call by Russian President Vladimir Putin to postpone a referendum on self-rule and said they plan to go ahead on Sunday with a vote that some fear could lead to a civil war.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said earlier that the European Union was still struggling to agree on what approach to take on the crisis and added the event was the biggest threat to European security since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Still, oil prices fell after investors sold for profits and jumped to the sidelines to await fresh steering currents.

Soft Chinese pricing data pushed oil prices down as well.

China's April consumer price index rose 1.8% year-on-year, less than market expectations for a 2.0% gain, while the country's producer price index fell 2.0%, more than market calls for a 1.9% contraction.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for June delivery were down 0.29% and trading at US$107.82 a barrel, while the spread between the Brent and U.S. crude contracts stood at US$7.92 a barrel.

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Dollar extends gains as euro softens on expectations for ECB move

Investing.com - Investing.com - The dollar extended Thursday's gains into Friday as investors flocked to the greenback after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi hinted that monetary authorities would feel at ease implementing fresh stimulus measures in June.

In U.S. trading on Friday, EUR/USD was down 0.66% at 1.3748.

The European Central Bank this week left interest rates unchanged at 0.25%, though the euro dropped after ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank's governing council would be comfortable acting at its next meeting after the bank publishes fresh inflation and growth forecasts.

Draghi attributed weak inflation rates to food and energy prices, but added that the strong euro and weak domestic demand are also pushing down inflation.

He reiterated that the ECB does not have a target for the euro exchange rate but stressed that the bank would closely monitor exchange-rate developments.

Market talk that fresh easing measures or rate cuts softened the euro, which boosted the dollar's safe-haven appeal.

The ECB will meet on June 5 to discuss monetary policy.

Elsewhere on Friday, official data revealed that Germany's trade surplus narrowed to €14.8 billion in March from €15.8 billion in February, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated surplus of €15.7 billion. Analysts had expected the trade surplus to widen to €16.6 billion in March.

Meanwhile, pro-Russia separatists in eastern Ukraine ignored a public call by Russian President Vladimir Putin to postpone a referendum on self-rule and said they plan to go ahead on Sunday with a vote that some fear could lead to a civil war.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said earlier that the European Union was still struggling to agree on what approach to take on the crisis and added the event was the biggest threat to European security since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

The dollar was up against the yen, with USD/JPY up 0.12% at 101.78 and up against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF up 0.79% at 0.8872.

The greenback was up against the pound, with GBP/USD down 0.54% at 1.6841.

The dollar was up against its cousins in Canada, Australia and New Zealand, with USD/CAD up 0.64% at 1.0900, AUD/USD down 0.20% at 0.9355 and NZD/USD down 0.36% at 0.8614.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.62% at 79.97.

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Dollar gains as Draghi's hints at June policy action soften euro

Investing.com - Investing.com - The dollar edged higher against most major currencies on Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi hinted that monetary authorities would be okay with implementing fresh stimulus measures in June.

In U.S. trading on Thursday, EUR/USD was down 0.39% at 1.3856.

The European Central Bank earlier left interest rates unchanged at 0.25%, though the euro dropped after Draghi said the ECB governing council is comfortable with acting at its next meeting in June, after the bank has published fresh forecasts for inflation and growth.

Draghi attributed weak inflation rates to food and energy prices, but added that the strong euro and weak domestic demand are also suppressing inflation rates.

He reiterated that the ECB does not have a target for the euro exchange rate but stressed that the bank would closely monitor exchange-rate developments.

Draghi reiterated the bank's forward guidance, stressing that interest rates will remain at their present or even lower levels for a considerable time.

The ECB chief said the latest data shows that the European economy is recovering, in line with the bank's forecasts, but also pointed to a prolonged period of low inflation, followed by only a gradual rise in prices.

Meanwhile in the U.S., the Department of Labor reported that number of individuals filing for unemployment assistance last week fell by 26,000 to 319,000 from the previous week's revised total of 345,000.

Analysts had expected jobless claims to fall by 20,000 to 325,000.

The dollar was down against the yen, with USD/JPY down 0.42% at 101.48 and up against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF up 0.33% at 0.8792.

The greenback was up against the pound, with GBP/USD down 0.06% at 1.6943.

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep interest rates on hold at their current record low of 0.5%. The bank also made no change in its quantitative easing program, which remains at £375 billion, though the pair largely ignored the widely-anticipated move

The dollar was mixed against its cousins in Canada, Australia and New Zealand, with USD/CAD down 0.71% at 1.0822, AUD/USD up 0.49% at 0.9374 and NZD/USD down 0.24% at 0.8642.

Australia reported earlier that the number of employed people in Australia rose by 14,200 in April, beating expectations for a 6,800 increase, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 5.8%.

Elsewhere, China's trade surplus widened to $18.45 billion in April from a surplus of $7.7 billion in March, outpacing estimates for a $13.9 billion surplus, which boosted the aussie.

Chinese exports climbed 0.9% from a year earlier, beating expectations for a 1.7% decline and following a 6.6% drop in March. Imports rose 0.8%, compared to forecasts for a 2.3% decline and after plunging 11.3% in the previous month.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.17% at 79.41.

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U.S. stocks end mixed to lower on earnings; Dow rises 0.20%

Investing.com - Investing.com - U.S. stocks ended Thursday mixed to lower after investors bought and sold equities while digesting hit-or-miss earnings, though upbeat data out of the labor market cushioned the market.

At the close of U.S. trading, the Dow 30 rose 0.20%, the S&P 500 index fell 0.14%, while the NASDAQ Composite index fell 0.40%.

A mixed bag of earnings sent stock indices rising and falling on Thursday.

Online travel agency Priceline.com Incorporated (NASDAQ:PCLN) reported a 36% increase in first-quarter profits, which drew applause, though still, expectations for bookings to slow dampened the stock.

Elsewhere, automaker Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) stocks dipped after the company's outlook for the second quarter disappointed investors.

Technology stocks came under selling pressure earlier, as investors viewed the sector as too frothy and sidestepped momentum stocks, Internet equities especially, which brought the Nasdaq down.

Earlier this week, Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) shares plunged after a six-month lock-up period expired for early investors that had restricted the sale of roughly 82% of the company's stock.

Good news out of the labor market drew some applause and allowed for sideways trading.

The Department of Labor reported that number of individuals filing for unemployment assistance last week fell by 26,000 to 319,000 from the previous week's revised total of 345,000.

Analysts had expected jobless claims to fall by 20,000 to 325,000.

Leading Dow Jones Industrial Average performers included AT&T Inc (NYSE:T), up 1.80%, Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS), up 1.63%, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS), up 1.23%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average's worst performers included Merck & Company Inc (NYSE:MRK), down 1.82%, UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH), down 1.31%, and Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX), down 0.90%.

European indices, meanwhile, finished higher.

After the close of European trade, the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 rose 1.33%, France's CAC 40 rose 1.37%, while Germany's DAX rose 0.90%. Meanwhile, in the U.K. the FTSE 100 rose 0.63%.

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Balaji Amines: Board recommends dividend

Balaji Amines at its meeting held on May 07, 2014, have recommended the payment of annual dividend of Re 1/- per equity share i.e. 50% on face value of Rs. 2/- per share and the same will be payable after it is approved by the shareholders at the ensuing Annual General Meeting.

Balaji Amines Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on May 07, 2014, inter alia, have recommended the payment of annual dividend of Re 1/- per equity share i.e. 50% on face value of Rs. 2/- per share and the same will be payable after it is approved by the shareholders at the ensuing Annual General Meeting.Source : BSE

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Accel Frontline: Change in directorship

Accel Frontline has informed that at the Board Meeting held on May 07, 2014, Mr. Malcolm F Mehta has been appointed as an Additional Director of the Company representing promoter company M/s CAC Holdings Corporation (earlier M/s CAC Corporation) with effect from May 07, 2014.

Accel Frontline Ltd has informed BSE that at the Board Meeting held on May 07, 2014, certain changes have taken place in the directorships:- Mr. A.P. Parigi, has resigned as a Director from the Board with effect from May 07, 2014. - Mr. Malcolm F Mehta has been appointed as an Additional Director of the Company representing promoter company M/s CAC Holdings Corporation (earlier M/s CAC Corporation) with effect from May 07, 2014.Source : BSE

Read all announcements in Accel Frontline

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Bajaj Auto gears up for RE60 launch in October

The Law Ministry vetted the proposal in February and thereafter, the Ministry of Roads and Transport which really piloted this concept for the longest time came out with the final notification which said that from October 1, 2014 quadricycles could start plying on Indian roads.

Bajaj Auto  is all set to roll out its RE60 and for the launch of India's first quadricycle, the RE60, and this comes after the government cleared the decks with new quadricycle norms.

The Law Ministry vetted the proposal in February and thereafter, the Ministry of Roads and Transport which really piloted this concept for the longest time came out with the final notification which said that from October 1, 2014 quadricycles could start plying on Indian roads.

Also read: FinMin likely to extend auto excise cuts beyond June

Hence, it is no surprise that Bajaj Auto, the company which for the first time showcased quadricycles to the Indian consumers and the Indian government would be the first off the blocks.

Sources in Bajaj Auto have said that in the very first week of October the company will launch the RE60 in India.

Furthermore, the company would also be looking at exporting the RE60 out of the Aurangabad plant where RE60 would be manufactured.

The company has already started talks with many state governments and it's the West Bengal government that has shown the most interest in quadricycles. So, maybe the first quadricycle could start plying on the roads of Kolkata.

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Crude gains as Ukraine unrest grows

Investing.com - Investing.com - Crude futures rose on Tuesday after skirmishes between Ukraine and separatists escalated and stoked fears of an outright civil war, which could affect oil shipments from neighboring Russia, the world's second-largest exporter after Saudi Arabia.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in June traded at $100.03 a barrel during U.S. trading, up 0.55%. New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of $99.33 a barrel and a high of $100.42 a barrel.

The June contract settled down 0.28% at $99.48 a barrel on Monday.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at $98.75 a barrel, Thursday's low, and resistance at $100.59 a barrel, the high from April 30.

Oil prices found support on clashes between Ukraine's army and pro-Russian forces raging in six eastern Ukraine cities over the weekend, sparking fears that the crisis will develop and drag the U.S. deeper into the standoff.

Pro-Russia rebels shot down a Ukrainian helicopter outside the eastern town of Slaviansk, while Ukraine dispatched police special forces to the port city of Odessa to halt the rebellion spreading westward.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry threatened Russia with further sanctions on Sunday unless the country stopped backing separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Russia produced 10.4 million barrels of oil per day in 2012 and exported 7.4 million, making it the world's second largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia.

Growing doubts that a recent deal between Libya and rebels to reopen oil ports bolstered prices as well, though sentiments that the U.S. is awash in crude capped gains.

Lackluster trade data out of the U.S. watered down oil prices as well.

Data revealed that the U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $40.38 billion in March from $41.87 billion in February, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated deficit of $42.30 billion. Analysts had expected the trade deficit to narrow to $40.30 billion in March, and the lackluster data softened the dollar.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for June delivery were down 1.17% due to profit taking, trading at US$107.32 a barrel, while the spread between the Brent and U.S. crude contracts stood at US$7.29 a barrel.

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USD/JPY edges lower on soft Chinese manufacturing barometer

Investing.com - Investing.com - The dollar slid against the yen on Monday after a Chinese factory gauge missed expectations and sparked safe-haven demand for the Japanese currency, while escalating unrest in Ukraine also watered down the greenback.

In U.S. trading, USD/JPY was down 0.11% and trading at 102.08, up from a session low of 101.87 and off a high of 102.26.

The pair was expected to test support at 101.87, the earlier low, and resistance at 103.02, Friday's high.

Investors were paying close attention to events unfolding in Ukraine, after conflict between the government and pro-Russian separatists grew more widespread over the weekend.

Fears that the U.S. will get dragged deeper into conflict and stifle recovery softened the greenback.

Elsewhere, weak output data out of China sparked safe-haven demand for the yen.

A final reading of China's HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers' index came in at 48.1 April, down from a preliminary estimate of 48.3 and missing forecasts for an uptick to 48.4. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction.

Elsewhere, profit taking from Friday's upbeat jobs report softened the greenback as well.

The dollar firmed last week after the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 288,000 jobs in April, well above expectations for jobs growth of 210,000, while the unemployment rate dropped to a five-and-a-half year low of 6.3%.

Still, concerns that long-term unemployment will remain a problem for the U.S. economy tarnished the otherwise positive jobs report, as the headline jobless rate fell in part due to a drop in the labor force, a sign that many who have been out of work for a long time quit looking for jobs and thus are no longer considered part of the labor pool.

Supporting the U.S. currency, however, was an upbeat report on the U.S. service sector.

In a report, the Institute of Supply Management said its non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to a five-month high of 55.2 in April, from a reading of 53.1 in March, compared to expectations for a rise to 54.1.

The yen, meanwhile, was up against the euro and up against the pound, with EUR/JPY down 0.05% at 141.66, and GBP/JPY trading down 0.11% at 172.21.

On Tuesday, the U.S. is to release trade data.

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Election fever heats up in Amritsar, but not its realty mkt

Team Prime Property walks the streets of Punjab's largest political battlefield to find out what it'll take for developers to put their faith in the city.

Amritsar may boast of the Golden Temple and it maybe a purlieu of old money, but the city's real estate market needs more than a prayer if it is to reclaim its lost glory. Team Prime Property walks the streets of Punjab's largest political battlefield to find out what it'll take for developers to put their faith in the city.

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Italy arrests man over cup final shootings, bemoans soccer violence

By Gavin Jones

ROME (Reuters) - Police have arrested a man over shootings that marred the Italian Cup Final and left a supporter fighting for his life on Sunday, violence that politicians and commentators said pointed to a broader malaise in the national sport.

The shootings took place on the streets before Saturday night's match between Napoli and Fiorentina and set up ugly scenes inside Rome's Olympic Stadium, where supporters threw flares and smoke bombs and delayed the start of the final.

Napoli won the match 3-1.

Police said on Sunday they had arrested Daniele De Santis, a 48 year-old Roma supporter they said had insulted a group of Napoli fans and, when they responded, shot and wounded three of them with a pistol.

De Santis is charged with attempted murder while the three Napoli supporters are also under arrest. They include Ciro Esposito who is in a critical condition in hospital after a bullet hit him in the chest.

Commentators said the pre-match violence and the behaviour in the stadium, where supporters' boos and whistles drowned out the national anthem, underlined the decline of Italian soccer and the failure of its administrators.

Officials and politicians condemned the role given to Napoli's hard-core "Ultra" supporters, whose leader was consulted by the team's captain in the stadium before apparently giving his authorisation for the game to go ahead.

"What happened yesterday was the surrender of the country's institutions to the fans," said former national team coach Arrigo Sacchi.

"No-one wants to take any action because they are afraid of losing support, so the solutions are always put off and then forgotten about."

Repeated promises by politicians to crack down on soccer violence have proven ineffective, often resisted by the clubs themselves as well as their organised supporters.

Interior Minister Angelino Alfano said on Sunday he was considering introducing lifetime bans from stadiums for offenders, but many experts say Italy needs tougher criminal sanctions and an overhaul of its whole football culture to make it more family oriented.

Former Prime Minister Mario Monti suggested in 2012 that Italian professional soccer should be suspended for two or three years in the wake of a betting scandal, a call which was repeated by some commentators on Sunday.

NO PROGRESS

In the 1990s Italy's showcase Serie A was widely seen as the most attractive league in Europe but now suffers from chronic crowd violence, dilapidated, half-empty stadiums, racism and deteriorating performances by its teams in European competitions.

Beppe Grillo, leader of the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement which is Italy's second largest party, wrote on his blog under the headline "The Republic is dead" that the cup final was like a funeral which confirmed the failure of the country's leaders and institutions.

The scenes in the stadium, watched by some 9 million television viewers, suggested little progress has been made in curbing the influence of the "Ultras" over the clubs.

The man accused of the shootings was among a group of Ultras who in 2004 prevented the derby between Roma and Lazio from being played after rumours - which turned out to be false - that a child had been run over by police outside the ground.

The sight of Napoli Ultras chief Gennaro De Tommaso apparently negotiating with team captain Marek Hamsik were reminiscent of the 2004 match when Roma's Ultras were consulted by captain Francesco Totti.

De Tommaso, whose photo was on the front pages of most newspapers on Sunday, wore a T-shirt calling for the release of a fellow Ultra in jail for the killing of a policeman at a Serie A match in Catania, Sicily in 2007.

(Reporting By Gavin Jones; Editing by Jon Boyle)

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Afghan boy relives terror of "bomb-like" landslide

By Mirwais Harooni

AAB BAREEK Afghanistan (Reuters) - Six-year-old Abdul Maqsood stood outside his neighbour's simple mud-brick home, staring aghast at the damage caused by a landslide which had slammed into his village in remote northeast Afghanistan. Then the rumbling started.

Maqsood had no idea that the entire side of the bare mountain above him, drenched by a week of heavy rain, had fractured and was about to cave in.

The second, even bigger landslide happened so quickly that Maqsood had no time to run. He was swamped by a wall of mud that swallowed up his home and some 300 others around him, taking hundreds, possibly thousands of lives in Afghanistan's worst natural disaster in a decade.

"It sounded like a bomb and I screamed, called my father and mother for help," he told Reuters on Sunday from a makeshift clinic in a tent where the injured were being treated by local and Red Cross medics.

"It was so dark and dusty everywhere and I didn't know what happened," said Maqsood, his head and leg wrapped in bandages.

The boy's father, a shovel already in hand after helping victims from the first landslide, rushed to back to find his son. Twenty minutes later, he dragged Maqsood from the earth and debris.

In one the poorest areas of Afghanistan - where most people do not have electricity and roads are almost non-existent - Maqsood's family was lucky: his mother and brother were also saved.

The United Nations on Sunday put the death toll from Friday's massive landslide in Badakhshan province, bordering Tajikistan, at up to 500. Local officials say the number killed could be as high as 2,700.

It is unlikely the final figure will ever be known, as officials say it is impossible to retrieve the bodies buried in up to 50 metres (160 ft) of mud and debris.

"We cannot continue the search and rescue operation anymore, as the houses are under metres of mud," said Gul Mohammad Bedaar, deputy governor of Badakhshan province. "We will offer prayers for the victims and make the area a mass grave."

Fears of another landslide prompted officials to evacuate the remaining 700 families, or about 4,000 people, to safer ground nearby. They may never return to live in their homes in Aab Bareek.

FREEZING

Afghan army helicopters delivered water, food, medicine and tents on Sunday, while aid agencies and local relief workers slowly arrived after a difficult journey over a pot-holed road.

The U.N. agency in charge of relief operations, the Office for the coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), said the displaced were largely being accommodated with host families, with some in tents.

But villagers expressed their anger with the relief effort, saying that many had already spent two nights in the open in near freezing conditions.

"At least they should give us a shelter to live in," said Bibi Nawroz, who said she had lost eight members of her family in the disaster.

Local officials echoed their concerns, calling on the government and foreign aid agencies to act more quickly.

"There are thousands of families who are in desperate need of help and hundreds of other homes are at risk, or possibly another landslide," said deputy governor Bedaar.

"The government and relief organisations must act swiftly and send us more aid and equipment. What we have so far is not enough."

Over the past fortnight, about a third of the country has been flooded due to heavy seasonal rains and snow melt, killing 159 people.

The United Nations says 71,000 have been affected in a country prone to natural disasters due to its geographical location and years of environmental degradation.

Despite offers of help from the United States and NATO-led coalition troops battling Taliban insurgents, the Afghan government says it can manage on its own, with the assistance of aid agencies.

Relations between Kabul and Washington are at an all-time low over President Hamid Karzai's refusal to sign a security agreement allowing a small U.S. force to remain in the country at the end of the year.

Twelve years after U.S.-led forces invaded Afghanistan to drive the Taliban from power, foreign combat troops will withdraw on Dec. 31 leaving security in Afghan hands.

The United States wants to keep a force of less than 10,000 troops there for counter-insurgency and training purposes.

(Additional reporting by Hamid Shalizi; Writing by Jeremy Laurence; Editing by Robin Pomeroy)

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WEATHER ALERTS IN INDIA ON 3rd MAY

According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, here are the weather alerts across the country issued on 3rd of May:

Weather alert for Kerala issued at 16:15 hours

Light to moderate rain and thundershowers at a few places are likely over Alappuzha, Idukki, Kollam, Pathanamthitta and Thiruvananthapuram districts of Kerala with strong average winds of 30 kmph gusting at 50 kmph during the next 2 to 4 hours.

Weather alert for Tamil Nadu issued at 16:09 hours

Light to good amounts of rain and thundershowers are likely at a few places over Ariyalur, Kanchipuram, Perambalur, Salem, Tiruchirappalli, Tiruvannamalai and Villupuram districts of Tamil Nadu with strong average winds of 40 kmph gusting at 70 kmph during the next 2 to 4 hours.

Weather alert for Odisha issued at 16:02 hours

Light to good amounts of rain and thundershowers are likely at a few places over Angul, Kendujhar and Mayurbhanj districts of Odisha with strong average winds of 40 kmph gusting at 70 kmph during the next 2 to 4 hours.

Weather alert for Jharkhand issued at 15:58 hours

Light to good amounts of rain and thundershowers are likely over Chaibasa, East Singhbhum and West Singbhum districts of Jharkhand with strong average winds of 50 kmph gusting at 80 kmph during the next 2 to 4 hours.

Weather alert for Meghalaya issued at 14:23 hours

Light to good amounts of rain and thundershowers at some places are likely over Jaintia Hills district of Meghalaya with strong average winds of 50 kmph gusting at 70 kmph during the next 2 to 6 hours.

Weather alert for Andhra Pradesh issued at 14:19 hours

Light to good amounts of rain and thundershowers are likely over Hyderabad, Mahbubnagar and Rangareddy districts of Andhra Pradesh with strong average winds of 50 kmph gusting at 70 kmph during the next 2 to 6 hours.

By: Skymetweather.com

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Modi's dream team: Who may get which portfolio?

R Jagannathan
Firstpost.com

With just two phases of polling to go, and with no undercurrents of any mood reversal visible in the electorate so far, two things can be said with a fair degree of certainty: the NDA will win, and Narendra Modi will be the next Prime Minister. The only elements of doubt pertain to two related issues: will the current NDA combine get to 272 on its own or it will need more post-poll allies; and what will be the BJP's own score in this 272-plus scenario (below 200 or above it)?

Above 200, Modi will be unstoppable; below 200 he will have to stoop to scoop up new allies. In either scenario, we still have him as PM. The only scenario where his elevation will be in some doubt is if the BJP falls below 180, but no one is talking about this possibility.

So this is as good a time as any to speculate about the composition of the next government led by Modi after 16 May. Contrary to what many Modi-baiters may think, the fact is he is not likely to bring about radical changes in the cabinet system, and barring the odd person or two, I would expect to see many of the old NDA faces in a Modi government. The only faces from Vajpayee's NDA who will not be there are LK Advani and Jaswant Singh. Advani, for obvious reasons, cannot work under his prot�g�, and Jaswant has been shown the door. But old allies like Shiv Sena and Akali Dal could send in new faces, given their own generational changes, and new allies will obviously bring new hands to the deck.

Any Modi government will be determined by his own choice of areas he wants to show progress, and political pressures from his party and the allies. Those who think he will concentrate all power in his hands are surely going to be dead wrong, for it is simply not possible unless the BJP wins 350 seats on its own – which too is not something anyone is even considering as even a distant possibility. In short, Modi is not going to run a one-man show.

These are the pressures that will operate on Modi if he wins.

�#1: The pre- and post-allies will have to be accommodated. This means many portfolios will be negotiated by forces outside Modi's span of political control. For example, the Akalis and Shiv Sena will seek good portfolios, and so will Chandrababu Naidu's TDP, which will bring in many seats from Seemandhra. Ram Vilas Paswan's LJP and Modi's rainbow coalition in Tamil Nadu will need portfolios too. If the BJP is short of 272, it will need a Jayalalithaa or a Naveen Patnaik to form a government. And possibly a TRS from Telangana. They will be accommodated.

#2: Internal BJP allies and partners will have to be accommodated. Modi didn't get where he is without help. Rajnath Singh, who will not be in the cabinet, played a huge role in smoothening Modi's passage from CM to PM candidate. Many of the UP candidates will owe some degree of allegiance to him, and Modi will surely oblige. Moreover, Modi's close CM allies – Vasundhara Raje and Raman Singh – will surely be entitled to put some of their nominees in government.

#3: Even BJP powers that are not Modi camp-followers – including Shivraj Singh Chouhan of Madhya Pradesh, Sushma Swaraj and Murli Manohar Joshi – will not be ignored. Modi may want to have his own people everywhere, but he knows that he also needs the state-level strengths brought by a Chouhan. Sushma and Joshi will surely be given decent portfolios – if only to avoid overt disgruntlement.

#4: Modi's external allies – Baba Ramdev and the RSS – will have some contributions to make in cabinet formation.

#5: Modi himself, of course, is not going to be someone who will just accept everyone's nominees. He has been in the race for PM, one suspects, partly to put 2002 behind him, and this means he will want performers in key ministries, even if they are not politicians with their own bases. Moreover, Modi may have particular interests in specific ministries which are sensitive politically to his priorities and those of his party.

#6: The last consideration will be regional representation. Many of the junior ministers may thus come from regions where the BJP may have few (or no) seats (for example, Kerala and West Bengal).

Given this backdrop, what is the most likely composition of a Modi government? It is best to look at portfolios that will be crucial to Modi's success and match them with the talent available to fit the bill.

Finance: Since this election is about the economy, finance will be the most critical portfolio. And here all signals points to one candidate: Arun Jaitley, the BJP's most articulate spokesman, who could be the MP elected from Amritsar if all goes well. He has been talking a lot of the economy. Modi himself hinted at an Amritsar rally recently that Jaitley will get an important portfolio – though not in so many words. Jaitley is thus likely to get the job. A junior minister here could be Piyush Goyal, with other junior ministers coming from allied parties.

Defence: Modi's keen interest in building a domestic defence industry and strengthening national security means he will want a competent minister here who will do a good job. Given the succession tussles now underway in the army, and the poor performance of the UPA in terms of modernisation and upgradation of the country's defence preparedness, Modi would need a sane and sensible minister here. The job could go to anybody Modi trusts – even a heavyweight suggested by Rajnath Singh. Modi may even retain the job with himself for a while.

External Affairs: This ministry will probably be given to someone familiar with economic diplomacy, a key Modi idea. Yashwant Sinha, who has been both finance minister and foreign minister, would be a perfect fit, but he has not contested the Lok Sabha polls this time, having got a ticket for his son Jayant instead. But if Jayant is not to be accommodated in the ministry if he wins, Sinha should be a possibility for the job.

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