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No more sweet spot: How Cadbury India looks at future

Written By Unknown on Sabtu, 25 Januari 2014 | 08.10

Like most FMCG companies, Cadbury India too is bracing multiple economic headwinds, which has caused demand to slide to a two-year low. In an exclusive chat with CNBC-TV18's Farah Bookwala, Cadbury's India MD Manu Anand elaborates on the strategies for future growth and why it has been slow in its rural expansion plan.

Also Read: Confident of maintaining margins at 9%, says Hatsun Agro

Below is the edited transcript of Manu Anand's interview with CNBC-TV18's Farha Bookwala

Q: Why have you been slow in rural expansion plan? 

A: Every company is feeling a slowdown in demand; here I have got to say it is a slowdown in the growth that people are really feeling. The factors are pretty obvious. The slowing GDP growth, high inflation, the weakening rupee, high commodity prices all of which contributing to that. Certainly the demand is slower than it would have been say two years ago.

Q: You are largely operating today in discretionary categories. Given the fact that there is a slowdown which is quite evident and even staples are today being impacted how are you looking to mitigate yourself in this scenario? Will you be looking at panning out or stretching your business into other categories which may perhaps be of a more essential nature?

A: What we are going to do during this period is really focus on the basics. We have got very strong brands and we are going to continue to build those brands. The second is going to be around innovation, provide consumers with new products, new innovations, new things to try out at affordable price points.

The third is going to be around expanding our distribution not just numeric reach but also what we do in store at the point of sale. To put it in context we have now put over hundred thousand visi coolers in the market place which allows us to take our full range of products to all the stores that are out there. The last is continuing to invest behind capacity because that is there for the long term, it takes it time and a cycle to add that capacity and we believe that we will have it well in time for continued growth of the market.



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Election Tracker: What's in store in 2014?

Jan 24, 2014, 10.20 PM IST

CNBC-TV18's Election Exchange finds out how the Modi factor is working wonders for the BJP across the country.

Tags  Modi, election, BJP

Like this story, share it with millions of investors on M3

Election Tracker: What's in store in 2014?

CNBC-TV18's Election Exchange finds out how the Modi factor is working wonders for the BJP across the country.

Like this story, share it with millions of investors on M3

Election Tracker: What's in store in 2014?

CNBC-TV18's Election Exchange finds out how the Modi factor is working wonders for the BJP across the country.

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CNBC-TV18's Election Exchange finds out how the Modi factor is working wonders for the BJP across the country.

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Crude gains as U.S. supply report reveals strong distillate demand

Written By Unknown on Jumat, 24 Januari 2014 | 08.10

Investing.com - Investing.com - Oil prices rose on Thursday after weekly U.S. inventory data revealed demand for distillates remains robust despite gains posted in oil and gasoline stockpiles.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded at USD97.61 a barrel during U.S. trading, up 0.91%. New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD96.42 a barrel and a high of USD97.77 a barrel.

The March contract settled up 1.85% at USD96.73 a barrel on Wednesday.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD93.66 a barrel, Monday's low, and resistance at USD98.96 a barrel, the high from Jan. 2.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 990,000 barrels in the week ended Jan. 17, outpacing expectations for an increase of 588,000 barrels.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 351.2 million barrels as of last week.

The report also showed that total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.1 million barrels, broadly in line with market expectations.

Meanwhile inventories of distillates, which include diesel fuel and heating oil, fell by 3.2 million barrels compared to market calls for a loss of 851,000, which supported crude prices.

The data came out one day later than usual due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday earlier in the week.

Elsewhere, prices rose on reports that the Keystone XL pipeline linking Cushing, Oklahoma, to the U.S. Gulf Coast began making deliveries this week, which should ease bottlenecks that have depressed prices at times.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for March delivery were down 0.48% and trading at USD107.76 a barrel, while the spread between the Brent and U.S. crude contracts stood at USD10.15 a barrel.

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Dollar dips on soft U.S. weekly jobless claims data

Investing.com - Investing.com - The greenback traded largely lower against most major currencies on Thursday after investors digested weekly jobless claims data and determined the numbers depicted a labor market still in need of monetary support to some degree.

U.S. trading on Tuesday, EUR/USD was up 1.09% at 1.3694, as solid factory and service-sector data out of Europe bolstered the single currency.

The euro zone's composite output index rose to a 31-month high of 53.2 in January, up from a final reading of 52.1 in December.

The report bolstered the euro by fanning expectations for the European Central Bank to hold off on easing monetary policy further and instead let policy remain unchanged to see if the economy can recover on its own.

Manufacturing activity in Europe's largest economy Germany expanded at its fastest pace since May of 2011 this month, coming in at 56.3, beating market forecasts for a 54.6 reading.

Meanwhile in the U.S., the Labor Department reported earlier that weekly initial jobless claims rose in line with expectations last week, but the number of continuing jobless claims remained above the 3 million mark for a second successive week.

The number of individuals filing for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week rose to 326,000, up from the previous week's revised total of 325,000 and in line with expectations.

The number of people filing continuing unemployment claims rose to 3.056 million up from 3.022 million in the week to Jan. 11. Analysts had expected continuing claims to fall to 2.930 million, and the numbers reminded investors that the Federal Reserve will take its time dismantling its USD75 billion bond-buying program.

Fed bond purchases tend to soften the dollar as long as they remain in effect by suppressing long-term interest rates to spur recovery, sending investors to asset classes like stocks and commodities in the process.

Elsewhere, U.K.-based Markit Economics reported that U.S. factory output fell to a three-month low in January, mainly due to the impacts that wintry weather had on commerce.

The U.S. manufacturing PMI declined to 53.7 this month from a final reading of 55.0 in December. Analysts had expected the index to hold steady.

Also Thursday, the National Association of Realtors reported that U.S. existing home sales came in at 4.87 million units last month from 4.82 million in November, missing expectations for an increase to 4.94 million.

The greenback was down against the pound, with GBP/USD up 0.31% at 1.6626.

The dollar was down against the yen, with USD/JPY down 1.29% at 103.18, and down against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF down 1.55% at 0.8974.

The Swiss government said earlier it agreed to a Swiss National Bank request to raise the level of capital banks must hold to underpin mortgage lending in order to curb the country's booming housing market.

The dollar was up against its cousins in Canada, Australia and New Zealand, with USD/CAD up 0.18% at 1.1107, AUD/USD down 1.05% at 0.8759 and NZD/USD down 0.10% at 0.8300.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.96% at 80.53.

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Gold edges lower as dollar drifts up on Fed tapering expectations

Written By Unknown on Kamis, 23 Januari 2014 | 08.10

Investing.com - Investing.com - Gold prices edged lower in quiet trading as the dollar inched up on expectations for the Federal Reserve to make fresh cuts to its USD75 billion monthly bond-buying stimulus program.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery traded at USD1,239.80 a troy ounce during U.S. trading, down 0.16%, up from a session low of USD1,237.90 and off a high of 1,243.40.

The February contract settled down 0.81% at USD1,241.80 on Tuesday.

Futures were likely to find support at USD1,235.40 a troy ounce, Tuesday's low, and resistance at USD1,261.30, the high from Jan. 19.

The dollar continued to see support from the International Monetary Fund's decision this week to hike its global economic growth forecast to 3.7% from 2014 from an October forecast for 3.6% growth.

The news fueled expectations for central banks to wind down stimulus programs such as bond purchases going forward, the Federal Reserve especially, as the multilateral lending institution predicted the U.S. economy to grow 2.8% this year, up from an October forecast of 2.6%.

Many market participants held firm on their expectations for the Fed to trim its quantitative easing program to USD65 billion from the current USD75 billion at its next policy meeting that wraps up on Jan. 29.

Fed bond purchases aim to prop up the economy by suppressing long-term interest rates, thus weakening the dollar as a side effect as investors flock to asset classes like stocks, with gold serving as an inflation hedge of choice.

Since the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has rolled out three rounds of quantitative easing to prop up the economy.

The current program began in September of 2012 and saw the Fed initially buy USD85 billion in Treasury holdings and mortgage debt a month from financial institutions.

Meanwhile, silver for March delivery was down 0.04% and trading at USD19.862 a troy ounce, while copper futures for March delivery were down 0.69% and trading at USD3.328 a pound.

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Dollar gains on IMF forecasts, Fed tapering anticipation

Investing.com - Investing.com - The greenback traded largely higher against most major currencies on Wednesday in a session void of major economic indicators that also saw investors betting the Federal Reserve will make fresh cuts to its stimulus programs at a policy meeting next week.

U.S. trading on Tuesday, EUR/USD was down 0.09% at 1.3549.

The dollar held stable as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting next week.

Many were betting the U.S. central bank will trim USD10 billion from its monthly bond-buying stimulus program and take it down to USD65 billion a month, which bolstered the greenback.

The asset-purchasing program, which began in 2012 at USD85 billion, aims to spur recovery by keeping long-term interest rates low, which weakens the dollar as a side effect and sends investors chasing stocks.

Investors were also hoping Thursday's data on weekly jobless claims will come in solid and convince the Federal Reserve the U.S. economy is in less need of monetary stimulus tools.

The greenback was down against the pound, with GBP/USD up 0.62% at 1.6579.

The pound found support after the Office for National Statistics said that the rate of unemployment in the U.K. fell to 7.1% in the three months to November, just above the 7% level the Bank of England sees as a threshold for considering raising interest rates from their current record low of 0.5%.

It was the largest drop in unemployment since 1997 the ONS said.

Analysts had expected the jobless rate to fall to 7.3% from 7.4% in the three months to October.

The ONS said the number of people claiming jobless benefits fell by 24,000 in December, compared to expectations for a decline of 35,000.

The average earnings index rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.9% in November, compared to expectations for a 1% increase, after rising by 0.9% in the previous month.

The dollar was up against the yen, with USD/JPY up 0.11% at 104.41, and up against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF up 0.12% at 0.9113.

The dollar was mixed against its cousins in Canada, Australia and New Zealand, with USD/CAD up 0.97% at 1.1075, AUD/USD up 0.55% at 0.8854 and NZD/USD down 0.07% at 0.8310.

The BoC maintained the target for the overnight rate at 1%, which came as no real surprise to the markets.

However, the central bank said Canadian inflation has fallen further below its 2% target and added monetary authorities expect inflation to remain well below target for some time.

Canadian economic growth improved in the second half of 2013, the BoC added, pointing out that stronger demand from the U.S. and the recent depreciation of the Canadian dollar was expected to help bolster exports going into this year.

Elsewhere, Australian consumer prices rose 0.8% in the three months to December and were up 2.7% on a year-over-year basis, beating market expectations for a 0.5% quarterly increase and an annual gain of 2.5%.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.08% at 81.27.

Aside from weekly jobless claims, the U.S. is to release a private-sector report on existing home sales on Thursday.

Investing.com
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Crude gains on IEA supply report, IMF growth forecasts

Written By Unknown on Rabu, 22 Januari 2014 | 08.10

Investing.com - Oil prices rose on Tuesday after the International Energy Agency said earlier that global demand is on the rise, while an International Monetary Fund decision to hike its 2014 global growth forecasts also supported the commodity.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude for delivery in March traded at USD95.03 a barrel during U.S. trading, up 0.47%. New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of USD93.93 a barrel and a high of USD95.46 a barrel.

The March contract settled up 0.52% at USD94.59 a barrel on Friday. There was no settlement on the NYMEX on Monday due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at USD93.93 a barrel, the earlier low, and resistance at USD95.73 a barrel, the high from Jan. 3.

In its monthly report released earlier in the session, the IEA said that global oil demand is forecast to rise by 1.3 million barrels a day this year to 92.5 million barrels, compared to a previous estimate of 91.2 million barrels a day.

The IEA cited 'stronger economic momentum as the year progresses,' as its reasoning behind the upward revision.

The agency added that oil supplies from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries rose by 310,000 barrels a day to 29.82 million barrels in December, due to higher output in Saudi Arabia.

Oil prices received an additional boost after the International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global economic growth to 3.7% this year from a previous estimate of 3.6%, which further stoked expectations for fuel and energy demand to increase.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for March delivery were up 0.63% and trading at USD107.02 a barrel, while the spread between the Brent and U.S. crude contracts stood at USD11.99 a barrel.

Investing.com
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Read more News on Investing.com and download the new Investing.com Stocks & Forex App for Android!


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Gold falls on IMF forecasts, Fed tapering expectations

Investing.com - Gold prices fell on Tuesday after the International Monetary Fund hiked its global growth forecast for this year and solidified expectations for central banks to unwind stimulus programs that have bolstered gold prices since the 2008 financial crisis.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery traded at USD1,242.30 a troy ounce during U.S. trading, down 0.77%, up from a session low of USD1,235.40 and off a high of 1,255.50.

The February contract settled up 0.94% at USD1,251.90 on Friday. There was no settlement on the NYMEX on Monday due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday.

Futures were likely to find support at USD1,233.90 a troy ounce, the low from Jan. 15, and resistance at USD1,261.30, the high from Jan. 19.

In revisions to its World Economic Outlook report published on Tuesday the IMF said it expects the global economy to grow by 3.7% in 2014, up from an October forecast of 3.6% growth.

The news fueled expectations for central banks to wind down stimulus programs such as bond purchases going forward, the Federal Reserve especially, as the multilateral lending institution predicted the U.S. economy to expand 2.8%, up from an October forecast of 2.6%.

Many market participants expect the Fed to trim its quantitative easing program to USD65 billion from the current USD75 billion at its next policy meeting on Jan. 29.

Fed bond purchases aim to prop up the economy by suppressing long-term interest rates, thus weakening the dollar as a side effect as investors flock to asset classes like stocks, which makes gold an attractive inflation hedge.

Since the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has rolled out three rounds of quantitative easing to prop up the economy.

The current program began in September of 2012 and saw the Fed initially buy USD85 billion in Treasury holdings and mortgage debt a month from financial institutions.

Meanwhile, silver for March delivery was down 2.04% and trading at USD19.890 a troy ounce, while copper futures for March delivery were up 0.18% and trading at USD3.351 a pound.

Investing.com
Investing.com offers an extensive set of professional tools for the financial markets.
Read more News on Investing.com and download the new Investing.com Stocks & Forex App for Android!


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IKF Technologies' outcome of board meeting

Written By Unknown on Selasa, 21 Januari 2014 | 08.10

IKF Technologies Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on January 20, 2014, inter alia, has considered and approved the following businesses:- Appointment of Mr. Umesh Govind Bhat as an Additional Director in place of Mr. Gajanand Gupta who resigned from directorship.Source : BSE

Read all announcements in IKF Tech


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Anugraha Jwellers' outcome of board meeting

Anugraha Jwellers Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on January 20, 2014, inter alia, have approved the following businesses:1. Approved the Shifting of Registered Office from the Jurisdiction of ROC Coimbatore to ROC Chennai, subject to approval of Shareholders and concerned Statutory Authority.2. Approved to change the line of Business of the Company from dealers/makers of Jewellery to carry on the business of Consultancy and Investment/Trading in Shares and Securities.3. Subsequent to Point No. 2 above, the Board has decided to Alter its Object Clause accordingly, subject to approval of Shareholders and concerned Statutory Authority.4. Subsequent to Point No. 3 above, the Board has decided to Change its Name from M/s. Anugraha Jewellers Limited to "Onesource Ideas Venture Limited" or any other name as approved by the Registrar of Companies, Subject to Shareholders' Approval.5. Approved reduction in Share Capital of the Company to the extent of Rs. 4,27,50,000/- (Rs. Four Crore Twenty Seven Lac Fifty Thousand only) out of the existing Equity Share Capital of Rs. 4,50,00,000/-(Rs. Four Crore Fifty Lac only) subject to approval of Shareholders and concerned Statutory Authorities. After proposed reduction, the Paid-up Capital of the Company will be Rs. 22,50,000/- (Rs. Twenty Two Lac Fifty Thousand only).6. To seek approval of Shareholders for above businesses by way of Postal Ballot Rules, 2011.Source : BSE

Read all announcements in Anugraha Jewel


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"Ride Along" rolls over Jack Ryan to win U.S. weekend box office

Written By Unknown on Senin, 20 Januari 2014 | 08.10

LOS ANGELES/NEW YORK (Reuters) - "Ride Along," a buddy cop comedy starring Kevin Hart and Ice Cube, collected $41.2 million in ticket sales to top the weekend box office charts, leaving another new release, political thriller "Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit," in the dust.

Last week's box office winner, the Afghanistan war tale "Lone Survivor," was second with ticket sales of $23.2 million, according to studio estimates provided by tracking firm Rentrak.

"The Nut Job," the first animated release from Open Road Films, collected $20.6 million in ticket sales to claim third place.

Starring Chris Pine as the late author Tom Clancy's fictional CIA analyst, "Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit" collected ticket sales of $17.2 million over the first three days of the Martin Luther King holiday weekend for the No. 4 spot.

"Ride Along" and "Lone Survivor" were released by Universal Pictures, a unit of Comcast Corp . Viacom's Paramount Pictures released "Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit." Open Road Films, a joint between theater giants AMC Entertainment


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Zach Braff back at Sundance with tragicomedy 'Wish I Was Here'

By Piya Sinha-Roy

PARK CITY, Utah (Reuters) - After exploring the quarter-life crises of young adults in the critical and commercial hit "Garden State" a decade ago, actor-director Zach Braff turned his eye to examine the existential dilemmas faced by parents in his new film "Wish I Was Here."

Braff plays 35-year-old Aidan Bloom, a struggling actor and married father of two, who decides to home school his children after the family can no longer afford the tuition for the private Jewish school the kids attend.

As Aidan battles with his own spiritual beliefs while he attempts to teach his "indoctrinated little matzo balls," he must find the motivation to move into a new chapter in his life and finally take responsibility for being a father who provides for his family.

"Wish I Was Here" marks Braff's return to the prestigious Sundance Film Festival exactly 10 years after he made his directorial debut with "Garden State," a film that garnered the actor-director critical praise and became a cult hit.

As an actor, Braff, 38, rose to prominence as daydreaming doctor J.D. on television sitcom "Scrubs," and "Wish I Was Here" sees him reunite with fellow "Scrubs" cast member Donald Faison, who plays a small role.

Braff, who co-wrote the film with his brother, Adam, told the audience at the movie's premiere this weekend that "Wish I Was Here" reflected the personal experiences that the two of them have had in their lives.

"'Garden State' was all the things me and my 25-year-old friends were obsessing about and talking about and worried about," Braff said. "With this, my brother and I are sharing the things we're talking about. He's got two young children, so what are the things he's wrestling with and teaching them? For me, it's my own spirituality." Braff does not have children.

He blends moments of levity and gravity in his film, from a rabbi on a Segway driving into a wall to his dying father, Gabe, wanting to make amends with his two sons. In one poignant moment, Gabe, played by actor Mandy Patinkin, says, "When life becomes tragic, it always circles back to comedy," something that "Wish I Was Here" plays with throughout.

The film's final touching scenes brought tears to most in the premiere's audience, generating a standing ovation for Braff.

"With films, the ones I love the most are the ones that are someone's unique story," the director said. "This is a unique story. No one else could tell this story that my brother and I wrote."

THE FILM THAT KICKSTARTER MADE

"Wish I Was Here" has already gained buzz after Braff sought partial funding through crowdsourcing website Kickstarter in April 2013, raising $2 million within 48 hours and $3 million overall from more than 46,000 people.

Braff said he was encouraged by his producer, Stacey Sher, to use Kickstarter after being discouraged by traditional methods of funding that would force him and his brother to make significant sacrifices in their script.

"(Sher) said it is kind of ballsy to put yourself out there ... but if it were to work, there would be no compromises, you and your brother could make the film you had in your brain, with all its weirdness," the filmmaker said.

The project also drew a strong cast of well-known names. Actress Kate Hudson plays Aidan's wife, Sarah, who supports her husband's acting dreams but also finds herself masking her own unhappiness and frustrations of being the sole provider for the family as she struggles through a mundane job.

Josh Gad plays Aidan's reclusive brother, Noah, who is stuck in a state of permanent adolescence, while Joey King plays Aidan's pre-teen daughter, Grace, who is upset at leaving her Jewish school where she found comfort in faith. In one scene, Grace shaves her head, which King did for real on camera.

"That was a really scary experience for me but it was a growing experience for my career," the young actress said.

The film also features a small appearance by actor James Avery, who passed away in December. Braff said the actor, best known for playing Uncle Phil in long-running 1990s situation comedy "The Fresh Prince of Bel Air," improvised the jokes for his scene.

"I'm glad that the last thing he did on film gets a giant laugh; I think he'd be happy about that," Braff said. (Reporting by Piya Sinha-Roy)



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Bandwidth of risk is widening for EMs: Andrew Sheng

Written By Unknown on Minggu, 19 Januari 2014 | 08.10

Andrew Sheng has been policy maker in three Asian countries. He was the former Chairman, Securities & Futures Commission, Hong Kong, and worked with Bank Negara Malaysia. He is currently advisor to the China Banking Regulatory Commission.

Also Read: What bank branches can't provide, alternate players can: Mor

He says for emerging markets the bandwidth of risk is now widening because the advanced markets, as they begin to recover and then restore back more and more interest rates, emerging markets will face capital flows back to the rich countries.

He also talks about the state of the Chinese economy and the benefits that may emerge for other emerging economies.

Below is the verbatim transcript of Andrew Sheng's interview on CNBC-TV18

Q: Many believe US, European Union and Japan will largely continue with currency printing and easy money policy in 2014. What will this mean for emerging markets like us in 2014?

A: There are many uncertainties that one cannot completely prevent, because we live in a very complex world of huge inter-dependencies, very complex feedbacks, then make policy judgement in an era of turbulence and huge uncertainty. My favourite phrase is that for emerging markets the bandwidth of risk is now widening because the advanced markets, as they begin to recover and then restore back more and more interest rates emerging markets will face capital flows back to the rich countries and therefore we must be prepared. This means that not only will the long-term U-curve of the advance country interest rates - U-curves will begin to steepen, it has been very flat for a long time, but also the risk spreads for the emerging markets will rise. That has several implications.

Number one, if you overshoot on interest rate issue your growth will slow down and if you keep interest rates too low there will be very large capital outflows with consequent implications on your asset prices. So financial stability, monetary stability, inflation, growth, employment could all be hit by this phase of tapering. The good news of course is that advance country central banks have become much more responsible. They are aware of the implications and they will phase it in a staggered manner or an acceptable manner. I think emerging markets will have a little bit of breathing space to adapt to this new environment. There are many other issues that we cannot predict. For example, territorial complex, technology shifts, diplomatic incidences - all these and maybe civil unrest could disrupt the game, so to be able to predict this is not easy.

Q: There is fear that China could hard land because of rising bad loans or non-performing loans (NPL). There is a fear that monetary and fiscal stimulus given after Lehman led to ghost cities and highways leading to nowhere and all those loans turning bad?

A: Markets are driven by greed and fear and it is the fear of risks that will enable individuals, banks, regulators, corporates to take more caution and deal with it. There is no doubt in my mind that China has fiscal space, foreign exchange space and the policy space to deal with it. It is a very, very large economy. It can take minor stresses to the system much better than many small very open economies. The capital account of China is still not open. The reserves are over USD 3 trillion. There is relatively little foreign debt so far, but domestic debt is rising.

One must also need to understand that even though domestic debt is rising, the counterpart of it is investments of course on an unprecedented scale, but the asset is there and so therefore the question is managing liquidity, managing cash flow, balancing the maturity risk and of course weeding out the weaker players. So in the short-term, yes in absolute terms probably NPLs will rise, in relative terms it would still be manageable.

Q: What's your assessment of Chinese growth in 2014 and 2015? Wouldn't growth slowdown because an appreciating yuan will hurt exports?

A: I do not like to predict the future, because the future is very difficult to predict. Second point is that my own assessment of what is happening is that of course the investment levels will not be as large as before because there is adjustment on the monetary policy side and some control on the credit side, but domestic consumption is beginning to move and there are several reasons for this. It is partly due to the improvement in the changes in the one child policy, urbanisation is still continuing, introduction of e-commerce. There are many minor factors that on their own you would not notice, but cumulatively Chinese domestic consumption is becoming more and more important as an engine of growth.

Q: How exactly do you see the Yuan in 2014? Does it continue to remain stable to appreciating?

A: I think the policy of the People's Bank is to maintain flexibility in its management. I think they want a stable currency, but they would also be interested in allowing market forces to determine the band of fluctuation. When that is going to be widened no one knows, but I think that is the general direction of policy. The issue that one needs to be very clear about is has the exchange rate broadly reached its equilibrium level. I think nobody can say this with precision, but broadly speaking as you can see the way imports and exports are behaving a more equilibrium level is about there.

Q: Indian businessmen tell us that with wage inflation in China and an appreciating currency, they will be able to snatch some markets from China. Your thoughts?

A: Rightly so. The minimum wages have begun to rise. It is part of the 5th Plan. You cannot have domestic consumption rising unless you have wages rising. So rising wages is very good for the domestic consumption area and domestic consumption rise will be very good for imports and so commodity exporters of China will find this very, very useful. On the other hand the rise in the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of China as the wages rise, its export competitiveness is reduced to some extent and that gives export space to countries like India and that is good news for all exporters in this regard.

However, one should also realise that as the wages increase it also forces a productivity adjustment by the exporters and by domestic corporations. So to some extent the increase in wages will be compensated by productivity gains. The total-factor productivity (TFP) will definitely increase also. How it is going to be played out is going to be difficult to see, but I agree with you there will be lots of opportunities for other emerging markets, particularly since the exchange rates are much more flexible.



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Delhi, North and East India reels under cold day conditions

Delhi is under cold day conditions as the weather remained grey and damp on Friday. Intermittent light rain throughout the day did not allow the temperature to rise beyond 12.9°C. Even on Saturday, Delhiites witnessed shallow fog in early morning hours and the day is likely to remain cloudy and gloomy. Cold day conditions will prevail as maximum will not rise above 15°C. The biting cold winter in Delhi effects restaurateurs as the customers' count dwindles. Street Vendors are also severely affected during winters.

Cold day conditions will continue to prevail in parts of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and north Madhya Pradesh in view of rain. Cold and moist north westerly winds sweeping across Northwest India and extending to eastern parts will add to the misery of people.

Shallow fog and rain did not allow temperature to rise in several parts of Uttar Pradesh. Here's a list of places where cold day conditions prevailed and temperatures maintained below 16°C -

Name of State Name of Places Maximum temp. on Friday(in °C) Uttar Pradesh Aligarh 13.4 Uttar Pradesh Jhansi 15.2 Uttar Pradesh Kanpur 15.2 Uttar Pradesh Meerut 15.3 Uttar Pradesh Agra 15.5 Uttar Pradesh Lucknow 15.9 Uttar Pradesh Allahabad 16.1 Weather in Bihar

In Bihar, cold day conditions have been improving since Thursday as the fog dissipated. Day temperature in Patna plunged from 14.8°C on Wednesday to 22.5°C yesterday. Below is a list of temperatures several parts of Bihar.

Name of State Name of Places Maximum temp. on Friday (in °C) Maximum temp. on Thursday (in °C) Maximum temp. on Wednesday (in °C) Maximum temp. on Tuesday (in °C) °C below normal Bihar Patna 22.5 21 14.8 14.5 8 Bihar Purnia 23.8 17 15.9 15.5 8 Bihar Gaya 23.3 21 15.1 15.9 8 Bihar Bhagalpur 17.6 21 15.2 16.2 9 However, this respite in Bihar seems temporary as cold north westerly winds from the northern plains will bring down maximums after 48 hours. The state will once again come under the grip of severe winter in India.

By: Skymetweather.com



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