Global eco growth to remain anaemic in 2015: Kenneth Rogoff

Global economic growth will still be anaemic in 2015, Chinese slowdown will continue, believes Kenneth Rogoff, Professor - Economics, Harvard University.

Speaking to CNBC-TV18 on its special show 'The World Economy 2015,' Rogoff said there are still doubts whether Japan can recover at all with just quantitative easing or whether it will need some fundamental changes like allowing more women folk into work. Of the lot, Rogoff expects US to have the best growth, but low inflation may still keep the Fed from hiking rates or hiking rates more than once. He is hopeful that commodities fall will not continue into 2015 but could possibly recover.

Rogoff started as a professional chess player and became an international master and a grand master. He took a break and took to economics. He graduated from Yale and took his Doctoral degree from MIT.

Rogoff was economist at the IMF and member of the board of governors of the Fed. More recently, he became renowned as the co-author of the book "This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly." The book argued that too much public debt causes slow growth and even recession. Kenneth Rogoff is currently professor of economics at Harvard University.

Below is verbatim transcript of the interview:

Q: Let me begin with US economy. The flow of data indicates that we will easily finish with over 3 percent growth in the current year. Are you sure that 2015 will be even more robust for the US economy?

A: I do. The US has very solid domestic demand, very broad based and there is good reason to be optimistic that growth will be 3 percent, maybe even a little better. It is a very asynchronous recovery in the world as a whole and that has a risk to the US. However, on the whole, the recovery is solidly ingrained and not about to come to an end.

Q: I was only wondering if US can grow in grand isolation. Can a slowing Chinese economy and recession in Europe in someway cast its shadows on the US? The dollar has been rising steadily and earlier this year Stanley Fischer worried if the strong dollar may not slowdown the US economy.

A: The US is a more closed economy than many others and fairly resilient to rises in the dollar. It affects individual manufacturers, exporters. However, the dollar is so dominant in world trade, many prices are indexed to the dollar and it doesn't pass through to relative prices, to competitiveness quite the way it does in smaller economies.

When you heard Stanley Fischer and Janet Yellen worry about the dollar they were sort of trying to find reasons that the Fed might hold back on tightening, trying to express their concerns about the fragility potentially of the economy. I do not think it is really the dollar per se.

If Europe goes into a more dramatic slowdown, if Japan doesn't continue atleast a decent growth, if China has a collapse that will hit the US, if those things don't happen, maybe growth will be even better. But it is moderate growth, a little above trend would be the order of the day most likely.

Q: If you are convinced about US growth what is your take on whether and when the Fed will hike rates in 2015?

A: This is a very tough call. It is clear that the economy is doing well. It is clear that labour markets are improving and if this were a normal recession the Fed would already have raised interest rates and be looking to raise them further. They are very nervous that they are not quite sure what is going on.

They do not know why global interest rates are so low. They do not know why inflation is quite as low as it is. It makes them more cautious. Also, Janet Yellen has been successful in pulling the committee towards her more dovish view point.

I see them holding off for as long as they can, looking hard at the data. When the data shows that inflation is rising and seems to be set to rise for quite a while broadly affecting expectations then they will move.

I do not think they will move until there is firm evidence that inflation is not just rising but rising on a sustained basis. I bet that does happen sometime in the second half of 2015 but a very early hike in 2015 right now would require much better data that current projections.

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Mahindra Adventure Authentic North East experience

It's when I'm piloting the big black Mahindra Adventure Thar with the word Lead' stickered onto it that it occurs to me that the participants on the Mahindra Adventure Authentic North East expedition certainly are terrific multitaskers. Of the 35 car convoy that comprises 70 odd people, there appear to be a sizeable portion who can manage to chuck their SUVs into corners, take in the scenery, overtake that dratted truck that's slowing them down, all the while carrying on a conversation on the radio with the rest of the convoy. I, as... Read More

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A look at the face-lifted version of the Porsche Cayenne

Porsche recently showcased the Cayenne at the Paris Motorshow and in just a couple of weeks, the SUV has made it here to India. This is a clear testament of the love for SUVs in India. Overdrive's Rohit Paradkar goes behind the wheels of the new Porsche Cayenne to give you his verdict.

Porsche recently showcased the Cayenne at the Paris Motorshow and in just a couple of weeks, the SUV has made it here to India. This is a clear testament of the love for SUVs in India. Overdrive's Rohit Paradkar goes behind the wheels of the new Porsche Cayenne to give you his verdict.

Watch accompanying video for more…

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Turnaround plan only by April 2016: Infosys' Vishal Sikka

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2014 has been a game-changing year for IT giant Infosys . with the exit of the founders, the new man at the helm - Vishal Sikka has his task cut out for him. Here's a special report on Sikka's journey over the last one year.

S Gopalakrishnan, Former Exec Chairman, Infosys said, "I will continue to cheer you all from the outside. Once an Infocian, always an Infocion. It was the end of an era and beginning of another and he was the one to usher it in. Vishal Sikka, who took charge for the top job at India's leading it bellwether Infosys, from founders and stalwarts of the it industry."

Meanwhile, Sikka said, "I only feel a tremendous sense of excitement and privilege to help take this iconic company."

It was after serving 12 years at global software product giant SAP, he took over the reigns of Infosys on June 12, 2014. But it was a time when the it was struggling - sub par earnings, high attrition, a dwindling market share with competitors like cognizant surpassing Infosys in the pecking order and visa issues in the US. Add to that, his entry was preceded by exits of top brass like V Balakrishnan, Ashok Vemuri and BG Srinivas, who were earlier frontrunners for the top job. However, the executive search committee responsible for the selection of the heir were confident.

NR Narayana Murthy had earlier said, "I think I am so honoured and pleased that Vishal has agreed to join Infosys as the CEO."

Sikka, though was prepared to delve straight into troubleshooting. Right after taking charge, he began employee town hall meetings and round table sessions with clients to pinpoint the issues and tackle them. The first step was clearly to reboot confidence.

Few months back, he said, "There have been things that have been happening here around attrition, what you can call an issue with confidence. One of the key things I see is the opportunity to restore the confidence and everything follows from there."

In his meetings, he found out that Infosys' lack of innovation and ability to adapt to changes was weighing heavy on the minds of clients.

Sikka then began a journey that he termed 'renew and new'. His strategy will work around 'renewing' or restructuring old verticals by aligning them to newer technologies and entering 'new' emerging verticals like digital, SMAC, mobility. Infosys will look at building newer software products, IP's, and even expanding high margin businesses like consulting.

To arrest the bigger problem of attrition, he infused a fresh air by inviting employee participation in ideation and strategy development. He also roped in 10 of his old colleagues from SAP to assist him build on the new strategy, a move that, according to sources, didn't go down well with incumbents.

In his first 6 months, he has kicked off the drive to renew Infosys; a defined strategy for the company will only be prepared by April 2015. And although his critics question lack of a roadmap for financial turnaround, his supporters say be patient, Sikka may just recreate the magic that took SAP to its pinnacle with the 1.1 billion pound SAP HANA product.

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Assembly poll result: New game to fight alone,cohabit later

R Jagannathan
Firstpost.com

The Bharatiya Janata Party's bid for a majority government in Jharkhand appears likely to be achieved with the help of one pre-poll ally. The halfway mark in the assembly is 41 in an 81-seat assembly, and the BJP and its AJSU ally seemed likely to get at least 42 seats between them.

This means the next government will be a coalition led by the BJP, and the need for an additional ally or the crossover of independents may not be necessary for a stable government. At one stage, it seemed that the BJP would require the help of the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik), which is headed by ex-BJP Chief Minister Babulal Marandi.

Marandi fell out with the party some year ago after Arjun Munda and other MLAs brought his government down. Since then he has been running his own party, with varied success.

Given the strong showing of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and Marandi's JVM (P), and given the Congress-RJD coalition's wins in some pockets, the new government will have a solid opposition. But there is no need for a shaky coalition of disparate parties and independents.

What the Jharkhand results prove is that the Modi wave has helped the BJP to emerge as the strongest party in the state, but the wave was not strong enough to beat back entirely the counter-waves of tribal loyalties and rival coalitions.

Just as BJP's Mission 44 failed in Jammu & Kashmir when the opposition recalibrated its strategy to stop Modi's surge, the party's showing in Jharkhand indicates that� Narendra Modi �will now have to spend time giving his allies due space and also rein in the hotheads in the Sangh parivar from taking the party towards Hindutva, sinking his governance agenda further.

The J&K and Jharkhand results are the first indications that the BJP, even though resurgent in most parts, has to recalibrate its strategy of going it alone all the time when the opposition to it is also beginning to see the need to work together.

In fact, if the JMM and JVM had fought the elections together, or the JMM and Congress/RJD alliances had entered into seat adjustments, the results could have been quite different. The rival combos would have equalled the BJP's solo vote share.

However, it is also possible that parties fighting separately can garner more votes than when fighting together. The Congress-JMM coalition, by breaking up before the elections, has managed to garner over 30 percent of the popular vote.

This has been the pattern in J&K too, where the National Conference and the Congress fought the elections separately to tell the voters different stories in the Kashmir valley and in Jammu.

The new game in town is to fight separately and cohabit afterwards.

The writer is editor-in-chief, digital and publishing, Network18 Group

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JK results 2014: BJP achieves Mission Kashmir

R Jagannathan
Firstpost.com

The Bharatiya Janata Party's Mission 44 in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) has failed, but the party has established itself as a powerhouse in Jammu, relegating the Congress to fourth place. Mission 44 has enabled the success of Mission Kashmir with closer ties to Delhi.

The results and counting trends show that we are headed for a hung assembly in J&K, with the BJP and the PDP being the top two parties with 25 and 28 seats, and the National Conference (NC) and Congress being the runners up in the regional and national parties categories.

This means that the only viable coalition will be one between Mufti Mohammed Sayeed's People's Democratic Party (PDP) and the BJP, which will comfortably pass the halfway mark of 44 in an 87-member assembly. A PDP-Congress coalition is only an outside possibility, given the numbers. With PDP's 28, Congress' 12 and independents, this coalition will be on life-support from Day One.

How did we get this kind of result even though the BJP has emerged as the single-largest party in terms of vote share, with a 23 percent vote share - a nose ahead of the 22.7 percent? NC and Congress come next with 20.8 percent and 18 percent.

Two reasons can be adduced for the failure of BJP's Mission 44.

One, the BJP's shock emergence as the biggest party in J&K during the Lok Sabha polls, and its expressly stated ambition of becoming a majority party in J&K with it Mission 44 gameplan (based on high turnouts in Jammu and low ones in the Kashmir Valley) put all it rivals on edge immediately. They worked hard to ensure that the mission is defeated by getting out the majority vote in the Kashmir valley. This is why we saw high turnouts in the Valley, despite muted calls for a boycott by the separatists. It is quite possible that the separatists held back their violence to enable the BJP to be stopped in its tracks.

Two, the National Conference-Congress break-up was critical to the blockade of the Modi wave in Jammu. By splitting up, the National Conference was able to concentrate its efforts in the Valley to stem the PDP's surge, and the Congress was able to slow down the BJP in Jammu.

During the campaign, the BJP was accused of trying to be pro-Hindu in Jammu and "secular" in the Valley as it did not tom-tom its threat to abolish article 370 while campaigning in the Valley. This may have cost it the chance of an overwhelming victory in its Jammu base.

However, the results show that the National Conference and the Congress played the same card – of courting the Muslim vote in the valley (by NC) and the Hindu vote in Jammu by the Congress.

This divide-to-deny-victory to BJP strategy was what killed Mission 44.

But the BJP has gained by registering a significant vote share in the Kashmir Valley. It has also established itself as the state's No 2 party, which cannot be ignored in any coalition.

Most important, by bringing out the vote, it has legitimised this election for the whole world. No one can now say that the Kashmir vote was a non-vote, with very few people voting.

It is clear that a BJP-PDP coalition is the state's best bet for a stable government as the parties comfortably cross the halfway mark.

This coalition would also have strong representation from both regions, the Kashmir Valley and Jammu, not to speak of Ladakh.

The betting should be on a PDP-BJP coalition as option 1.

The National Conference, of course, has no chance of forming a government, with or without Congress and independent support.

The BJP will be happy to join a J&K government. Not least because assemblies in J&K have a life of six years against the more normal five elsewhere.

This is what we should celebrate: by not achieving Mission 44, the BJP has effectively enabled a key role for itself in Kashmir. In short, Mission 44 was lost, but Mission Kashmir was accomplished.

The writer is editor-in-chief, digital and publishing, Network18 Group

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Mukand: Outcome of board meeting

Mukand has informed regarding the Outcome of Board Meeting of the Company held on December 22, 2014.

To read the full report click here

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Capital First: Outcome of board meeting - Resignation of Director

Capital First has informed that Mr. Anil Singhvi has resigned from the Board of Directors of the Company with effect from the conclusion of Board Meeting held on December 22, 2014.

Capital First Ltd has informed BSE that Mr. Anil Singhvi has resigned from the Board of Directors of the Company with effect from the conclusion of Board Meeting held on December 22, 2014.Source : BSE

Read all announcements in Capital First

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Tunisia's Essebsi campaign claims vote victory

By Patrick Markey and Tarek Amara

TUNIS (Reuters) - Tunisian presidential candidate Beji Caid Essebsi claimed victory in Sunday's run-off election, which is seen as the final step to full democracy nearly four years after an uprising ousted autocrat Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali.

Preliminary results were still to be released by election authorities, but soon after polls closed, Essebsi said he had beaten rival Moncef Marzouki, the incumbent president.

"I dedicate my victory to the martyrs of Tunisia. I thank Marzouki, and now we should work together without excluding anyone," Essebsi, a former parliament speaker under Ben Ali, told local television.

His campaign manager said "initial indications" showed the 88-year-old Essebsi had won without giving any details, as hundreds of celebrating supporters chanted "Beji President" and waved Tunisia's red and white national flag.

However, rival campaign manager for Marzouki, Adnen Monsar, dismissed the claims saying it was a very close call. "Nothing is confirmed so far," he told reporters.

With a new progressive constitution and a full parliament elected in October, Tunisia is hailed as an example of democratic change for a region still struggling with the aftermath of the 2011 Arab Spring revolts.

Tunisia avoided the bitter post-revolt divisions troubling Libya and Egypt, but tensions sporadically flare. One gunman was killed overnight and three arrested after they opened fire on a polling station in the central Kairouan governorate, a defence ministry official said.

Essebsi took 39 percent of votes in the first round ballot in November with Marzouki winning 33 percent.

As front runner, Essebsi dismissed critics who said victory for him would mark a return of the old regime stalwarts. He argued that he was the technocrat Tunisia needed following three messy years of an Islamist-led coalition government.

Marzouki, 69, is a former activist who once sought refuge in France during the Ben Ali era. He painted an Essebsi presidency as a setback for the "Jasmine Revolution" that forced the former leader to flee into exile.

"We need a president who looks after the people and is not interested only in power," said Ibrahim Ktiti, an electrician who voted in the poor Ettadhamen neighbourhood of Tunis. "The old regime won't make it back. Essebsi never excused himself for all the time he was with Ben Ali."

Yet many Tunisians tie Marzouki's own presidency to the Islamist party's government and the mistakes opponents said it made in controlling the influence of hardline Islamists in one of the Arab world's most secular countries.

Compromise has been important in Tunisian politics and Essebsi's Nidaa Tounes party reached a deal with the Islamist Ennahda party to overcome a crisis triggered by the murder of two secular leaders last year.

Ennahda stepped down at the start of this year to make way for a technocrat transitional cabinet until elections. But the Islamists remain a powerful force after winning the second largest number of seats in the new parliament.

Essebsi appeals to the more secular, liberal sections of Tunisian society, while analysts predicted that Marzouki would draw on support from more conservative rural areas, and from some members of Ennahda, which did not field a candidate.

The presidency post holds only limited powers over national defense and foreign policy. The parliament, led by Nidaa Tounes which won the most seats, will be key to selecting a prime minister to lead the government.

(Reporting by Tarek Amara; writing by Patrick Markey; editing by Andrew Hay, Jason Neely and Crispian Balmer)

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Forex - Yen weaker in early Asia in light data day

Investing.com - Investing.com - The yen was weaker in early Asia on Monday in a light data day while the Aussie also fell a tad.

USD/JPY traded at 119.52, up 0.05%%, while AUD/USD changed hands at 0.8140, down 0.07%.

Later, the Bank of Japan's Monthly Economic Report for December is due at 1400 Tokyo (0500 GMT).

Last week, the dollar traded higher against most major currencies on Friday in subdued trading after falling jobless assistance claims and reassurances from the Federal Reserve this week continued to stoke expectations for rate hikes in 2015.

The dollar enjoyed support after the U.S. Department of Labor said on Thursday that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending Dec. 12 fell by 6,000 to 289,000 from the previous week's revised total of 295,000. Economist had forecast an increase of 1,000.

The data came a day after the Fed said it would be "patient" before raising rates, guidance which it said is consistent with earlier assurances statement that rates would stay low "for a considerable time."

Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank was unlikely to raise rates for the "next couple of meetings" indicating that a move in April at the earliest is possible.

Still, the dollar saw support on the notion that the days of rock-bottom interest rates are coming to an end.

The US dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, ended up last week 0.43% at 89.83.

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Richard Verma sworn in as US Ambassador to India

Richard Rahul Verma, who quietly played a key role in the Congressional passage of the civil nuclear deal and a strong advocate of deepening Indo-US ties, has been sworn in as the US Ambassador to New Delhi, becoming the first ever Indian-American to hold the post. The 46-year-old was sworn in by Secretary of State John Kerry at the State department.

Verma is scheduled to arrive in India ahead of Kerry's visit to Delhi next month. US President Barack Obama will arrive in late January to attend the Republic Day Parade on January 26 as the Chief Guest.

He was confirmed by the Senate by a voice vote last week.

Verma, who quietly played an important role in the Congressional passage of civil nuclear deal with India, had advocated for strong Indo-US ties when in the administration and recently started 'India 2020' project at the Centre for American Progress — a top American-think tank.

He will replace Nancy Powell, who resigned in March after a damaging row over the treatment of diplomat Devyani Khobragade over visa fraud charges.

The US Embassy in New Delhi is currently headed by a charge d'affaires, Kathleen Stephens. Verma's association with Obama goes back to 2008 when he worked on presidential debate preparations for the then Illinois senator.

He served as Assistant Secretary of State for Legislative Affairs under Hillary Clinton from 2009 to 2011, and was a senior counsellor at law firm Steptoe & Johnson as well as the Albright Stonebridge Group.

"Known as a talented leader and manager, he is recognised for his many years of experience working on high-level policy in the federal government, in the private sector and with non-governmental organisations, especially on matters relating to the affairs of South Asia and India, including political-military relations," according to his profile on the State Department Web site.

His knowledge and ability to set the agenda will enable him to strengthen bilateral relations with India, a pivotal nation of critical global importance to the US, it said. His parents went  to the US in the early 1960s.

"It is a day of celebration for Indian-Americans," said Dr Sampat Shivangi, national president of Indian American Forum for Political Education.

"Verma deserves this worthy appointment due to his dedication and well deserved respect he commands from President Obama and entire US Congress and the nation," said Shivangi, one of the few Indian-Americans invited to attend the swearing-in ceremony at the State Department yesterday.

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Do you invest to save tax?

Arnav Pandya

Sometimes an investment that cannot be bought due to unattractive returns and benefits it offers, is actually bought just for the purpose of saving tax. There is a clear way in which every individual has to approach this situation and here are some of the main points that can be considered in this analysis.

Nature of tax benefit

There can be two types of tax benefits that an individual can get when they make a certain investment. The first one involves the benefit at the time of making the investment. It is a deduction that is available when the money is invested. A deduction means that the amount is reduced from the taxable income of the individual so this would end up lowering the tax that has to be paid. This is the kind of benefit that one sees when there is an investment that is covered under Section 80C of the Income Tax Act in instruments like insurance premium, National Savings Certificates, PPF, EPF etc.

The other tax benefit is that the income that is earned on the investment has a beneficial tax treatment. This could either be a part of the income that is tax free or it could be that the entire income is tax free. There is also a chance that the income earned from a specific investment route has a tax rate applicable that is lower than what would be witnessed for similar earnings from other areas. All this would make the route slightly attractive for the investor. Both these types of tax benefits by themselves might not shift the decision to one of investing but it can sometimes help in the overall process.

Usage of limits

There is also a situation wherein there are limits that present for a specific benefit like the deduction under Section 80C where there is an overall limit of Rs 1.5 lakh. It could be that there are other elements or other routes wherein this limit is being used up and in such a position the additional tax benefit actually could be working out to be nothing for a specific investment because it is already being used up. Many times people do not realise this point and they keep making investments under the belief that there is a tax benefit coming to them when this might not be the case. Also it could be that there is a position where the savings in income tax due to the benefit on the income side is also not significant which can turn around the entire working. In such cases it would be better to stay away from the investment and use other options that are more suitable for achieving a specific goal.

Single or multiple investments

Various types of investments have different implications and one aspect that needs to be considered is the kind of money that would have to be invested by the individual over a period of time. Most people look at the present and what they see as the cost in terms of making the investment only immediately. But this need not be the whole story because it could be that there are several investments where there are regular payments that come in year after year. For example, buying a regular premium life insurance policy that expects buyer to pay for certain minimum number of years. In such a situation there is a longer and a larger investment commitment that the individual is making and this also needs to be factored in the calculations. It might not be prudent or suitable for everyone to make long term investment commitments and hence this should be brought into the investment decision making process.

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