More rain likely in Northwest India; pre-monsoon showers to continue in south

Last night, the Western Disturbance over North Pakistan and adjoining areas of Jammu & Kashmir moved east-northeastwards and now lies over Jammu & Kashmir. This weather system is working in tandem with a cyclonic circulation over Rajasthan. According to the latest weather update by Skymet Meteorology Division in India, these weather systems will continue to bring snow in the higher reaches of Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh and will also bring rain in Uttarakhand, Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh till Sunday. Day temperatures in northwest plains are below the normal and they are unlikely to rise during the next two days under the influence of these systems.

Satellite images show a wind discontinuity that extends from Gangetic West Bengal to Tamil Nadu across some parts of Odisha, South Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Madhya Maharashtra, Telangana and Karnataka.

Under the aegis of this discontinuity where warm and moist winds are colliding, isolated rain could be experienced over Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand in east India, Chhattisgarh and parts of Odisha in east central India, Vidarbha, Telangana and Madhya Maharashtra in central South Peninsula.

This discontinuity will also give pre-monsoon showers at isolated places in coastal Andhra Pradesh, north and south interior Karnataka. Coastal areas of Karnataka and Kerala will also receive some rain due to a trough extending from Kerala to Karnataka along the West coast. The areas that will remain dry are northern parts of the West coast (Mumbai), Gujarat and Tamil Nadu.

Isolated showers are also expected in the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim due to a cyclonic circulation over the foothills of Himalayas in West Bengal. Another cyclonic circulation over Assam will give rain at isolated placed in the Northeast region.

By: Skymetweather.com

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Heat waves could threaten global food supply

Heat waves, extreme temperatures and elevated levels of carbon dioxide could significantly reduce crop yields, according to a study by researchers at Norwich-based University of East Anglia. Global warming could threaten the supply of food, especially maize, wheat and soybean across the world if global climate change is not tackled and upturned.

Studies held earlier stated that climate change could decrease the yield of maize globally under a "business as usual" scenario for future emissions of greenhouse gases. The recent study includes heat waves, which could double the losses of the crop.

Extreme temperatures brought about by increase in global mean temperature can be dangerous to crops, particularly around the flowering period of the plant also known as anthesis. During this stage, high temperatures lead to reduced pollen sterility and seed set, thereby reducing the crop yield.

According to Skymet Meteorology Division in India, a heat wave is a prolonged period of weather condition when maximum temperature is more than 40°C and 5°C above the normal average. The impact of heat waves on wheat and soybean are less profound than maize.

Warm climate can make many crops grow quickly but surprisingly reduce yields. The reason is simple; crops tend to grow faster but for some grains faster growth reduces the amount of time that seeds have to grow and mature.

It is true that on doubling carbon dioxide levels, yields of wheat and soybeans could increase by 30 per cent and 10 per cent for corns. However, an increase in temperature, above the crop`s optimal level, may counteract the potential increase due to higher carbon dioxide concentrations.

Thus, the study concludes that future heat waves will prove to be detrimental to key global food crops if climate change is not addressed.

picture courtesy- Institute of Physics

By: Skymetweather.com

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Gold dips on U.S. data, talk of waning physical demand

Investing.com - Investing.com - Gold prices fell on Thursday after weekly U.S. jobless claims numbers and a regional factory report beat expectations, while talk of waning physical demand in Asia softened the precious metal as well.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery traded at $1,293.90 a troy ounce during U.S. trading, down 0.74%, up from a session low of $1,293.20 and off a high of $1,304.30.

The June contract settled up 0.25% at $1,303.50 on Wednesday.

Futures were likely to find support at $1,289.60 a troy ounce, Tuesday's low , and resistance at $1,331.30, Monday's high.

Solid U.S. economic indicators released earlier bolstered the dollar and marred gold's historical appeal as a hedge to a weaker greenback.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its manufacturing index rose to 16.6 in April, the highest level since September, from 9.0 in March. Analysts had expected the index to tick up to 10.

Separately, the Labor Department reported that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending April 12 rose by 2,000 to 304,000, better than analysts' forecasts for a rise to 315,000.

On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that monetary policy will need to remain accommodative for some time, citing slackness in the labor market and low inflation, which weakened the dollar, though Thursday's data gave the greenback some support and chipped away at gold's gains.

Elsewhere, talk of soft physical demand in China coupled with reports of funds selling gold positions softened prices as well.

Meanwhile, silver for May delivery was down 0.21% at US$19.593 a troy ounce, while copper futures for May delivery were up 0.85% at US$3.051 a pound.

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Dollar erases losses on data, Yellen comments still weigh

Investing.com - Investing.com - Upbeat U.S. regional factory and jobless claims reports erased the dollar's losses against most major currencies on Thursday, though Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's dovish speech delivered on Wednesday still weighed on the currency.

In U.S. trading on Thursday, EUR/USD was up 0.01% at 1.3818.

The dollar narrowed earlier losses stemming from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's dovish speech on Wednesday and rose on cheery U.S. data.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported earlier that its manufacturing index rose to 16.6 in April, the highest level since September, from 9.0 in March. Analysts had expected the index to tick up to 10.

Separately, the Labor Department reported that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending April 12 rose by 2,000 to 304,000, better than analysts' forecasts for a rise to 315,000.

On Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that monetary policy will need to remain accommodative for some time, citing slackness in the labor market and low inflation, which weakened the dollar, though Thursday's data gave the greenback some support.

Meanwhile in Europe, Germany's producer price index contracted 0.3% in March from a month earlier and fell 0.9% on year.

Analysts were expecting a 0.1% monthly increase and a 0.7% on-year decline.

The numbers chipped away at the euro's gains over the dollar, as a day earlier, data revealed that the annual inflation rate slowed to 0.5% in March from 0.7% the previous month, soft but in line with expectations.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile items like food and energy costs, fell to 0.7% from 1.0% in February, missing expectations for a 0.8% reading.

Euro zone inflation has now been in the European Central Bank's danger zone of below 1% for six straight months, fueling speculation that policymakers will need to implement fresh stimulus measures to shore up the fragile recovery in the euro area.

The dollar was up against the yen, with USD/JPY up 0.20% at 102.44, and up against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF up 0.12% at 0.8828.

The yen continued to come under pressure after Japanese Central Bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told parliament this week that now is not an appropriate time to discuss exiting stimulus policies.

The greenback was flat against the pound, with GBP/USD down 0.01% at 1.6796.

The dollar was mixed against its cousins in Canada, Australia and New Zealand, with USD/CAD down 0.02% at 1.1015, AUD/USD down 0.48% at 0.9325 and NZD/USD down 0.68% at 0.8566.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.01% at 79.92.

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Crude slips on U.S. supply report, Chinese data support

Investing.com - Investing.com - A soft U.S. oil inventory report sent crude prices sliding on Wednesday though better-than-expected growth rates in China as well as a solid U.S. industrial production report supported the commodity.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for delivery in May traded at $103.66 a barrel during U.S. trading, down 0.09%. New York-traded oil futures hit a session low of $103.15 a barrel and a high of $104.98 a barrel.

The May contract settled down 0.29% at $103.75 a barrel on Tuesday.

Nymex oil futures were likely to find support at $102.95 a barrel, Tuesday's low, and resistance at $104.98 a barrel, the earlier high.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 10.01 million barrels in the week ended April 11, far surpassing expectations for a build of 2.25 million barrels, which sent prices falling on concerns the economy is awash in crude.

Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 394.1 million barrels as of last week.

The EIA said total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.2 million barrels compared to forecasts for a decline of 1.66 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles decreased by 1.27 million barrels.

A report from the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday showed U.S. oil inventories rose by 7.6 million barrels last week, while gasoline stocks fell by 500,000 barrels and distillate stocks dropped by 1.1 million barrels.

Cushioning losses, however, were Chinese and U.S. data.

China's gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 7.4% in the first three months of 2014, slowing from 7.7% in the fourth quarter, but beating expectations for a 7.3% reading.

Meanwhile in the U.S., industrial production rose 0.7% in March from February, beating expectations for a 0.5% reading.

The U.S. and China are the world's largest consumers of oil, and the data fueled hopes for more demand for fuel and energy going forward, which pushed the commodity in and out of positive territory.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil futures for May delivery were up 0.22%, trading at US$109.60 a barrel, while the spread between the Brent and U.S. crude contracts stood at US$5.94 a barrel.

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Alstom T D India's board to consider dividend

Alstom T & D India board meeting will be held on April 29, 2014, to consider and approve the financial results for the financial year ended on March 31, 2014 (Audited) and for the quarter ended on that date; and to consider recommendation of dividend, if any.

Alstom T & D India Ltd has informed BSE that a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Company will be held on April 29, 2014, inter alia, to consider and approve the financial results for the financial year ended on March 31, 2014 (Audited) and for the quarter ended on that date; and to consider recommendation of dividend , if any.Source : BSE

Read all announcements in Areva T&D

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Post 'face-off' Ben Bernanke supports Rajan on inflation

Raghuram Rajan will probably be thankful to Ben Bernanke for lending his shoulder to a few arguments based on inflation targeting.

Just a few days after the face-off between two of the world's important economies's chiefs comes a clarification . US Federal Reserve's former chairman Ben Shalom Bernanke on Tuesday said he has a lot of admiration for RBI Governor Rajan' s work as an academician.
 
Dismissing talks of any bad blood between the two, Bernanke downplayed the face-off claiming there was none.

CNBC-TV18's Latha Venkatesh reports Bernanke said that he and Rajan just disagreed on certain aspects of quantitative easing (QE). While discussing the spillover, he said he was optimistic that QE can be still effective while Rajan believed that incrementally QE would be less effective.

There are a couple of other things which Rajan perhaps will be thankful to Ben Bernanke for lending his shoulder to a few arguments. Bernanke was specifically asked on behalf of some questioners about inflation targeting and whether he supported it to which he said that inflation targeting was very good simply because it made it very clear to the market what the central bank was working at and that clarity itself would make policies effective.

He further added that inflation targeting doesn't mean the central bank ignores other goals. Infact, he was clearly pointing out that even central banks with inflation targeting as a mandate usually did not ignore other goals which squares very much with what Rajan says that he doesn't want to be an inflation nutter but is simply trying to bring down high levels of inflation.

 

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Dollar gains on U.S. inflation data, housing data weighs

Investing.com - Investing.com - The dollar firmed against most major currencies on Tuesday after better-than-expected U.S. inflation rates hit the wire, though soft data out of the housing sector capped the greenback's gains.

In U.S. trading on Tuesday, EUR/USD was down 0.07% at 1.3812.

The Labor Department reported earlier that the U.S. consumer price index rose 0.2% in March, exceeding expectations for a 0.1% gain, after a 0.1% uptick the previous month.

The on-year rate rose 1.5% in March, beating estimates for a 1.4% gain though still below the Fed's 2% target.

The core consumer price index, which excludes volatile food and energy items, rose 0.2% last month, beating estimates for a 0.1% increase, after a 0.1% gain in February.

The on-year core consumer prices index rose 1,7%, beating estimates for the index to remain unchanged at 1.6%.

Elsewhere, a separate report showed that the Empire State manufacturing index fell to 1.3 for April from 5.6 in March, defying expectations for a rise to 8.2.

Investors viewed Tuesday's overall data as solid enough to keep the Federal Reserve dismantling its monthly asset-purchasing program, which currently stands at $55 billion.

Monthly bond purchases by the Fed weaken the dollar by suppressing borrowing costs, sending investors to stocks in hopes in investing and hiring follow.

Soft housing data watered down demand for the greenback.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index came in at 47 for April, missing market calls for a reading of 50.

Readings below 50 mean more builders view market conditions as poor than favorable, and April's showing marked the third consecutive month of a number below that threshold.

Meanwhile in Europe, the single currency came under pressure earlier after data showed that the ZEW index for German economic sentiment fell to an eight-month low of 43.2 this month from 46.6 in March. Analysts had expected the index to decline to 45.0 in April.

The dollar was flat against the yen, with USD/JPY unchanged at 101.85, and up against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF up 0.07% at 0.8804.

The greenback was up against the pound, with GBP/USD down 0.04% at 1.6722.

Data released earlier revealed that the U.K. consumer price index rose 0.2% in March, in line with expectations, after a 0.5% increase the previous month.

On a yearly basis, U.K. CPI rose 1.6% last month, in line with market expectations, after a 1.7% gain in February.

The dollar was up against its cousins in Canada, Australia and New Zealand, with USD/CAD up 0.16% at 1.0980, AUD/USD down 0.74% at 0.9352 and NZD/USD down 0.53% at 0.8642.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.07% at 79.88.

On Wednesday, the U.S. is to produce reports on housing starts, building permits and industrial production.

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USD/JPY gains on upbeat U.S retails sales figures

Investing.com - Investing.com - Better-than-expected U.S. retail sales gave the dollar a shot in the arm against the yen on Monday, rekindling sentiments that U.S. recovery is gaining steam after a rough winter and will keep the Federal Reserve on course to winding down stimulus programs this year.

In U.S. trading, USD/JPY was up 0.22% and trading at 101.84, up from a session low of 101.42 and off a high of 101.01.

The pair was expected to test support at 101.33, Friday's low, and resistance at 104.12, the high from April 4.

The Commerce Department reported earlier that U.S. retail sales rose 1.1% in March, exceeding expectations for a 0.8% gain. Retail sales in February were revised up to a 0.7% increase from a previously estimated 0.3% rise.

Core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, rose 0.7% last month, beating expectations for a 0.5% reading, after a 0.3% gain in February

Consumer demand drives the bulk of U.S. economic output, and the numbers fueled expectations that a slew of soft economic indicators hitting the wire earlier this year were the product of rough winter weather and not a softening of underlying demand.

The data also fueled sentiments that the Federal Reserve will continue to wind down its monthly asset-purchasing program as the year unfolds.

Fed asset purchases, currently standing at $55 billion a month, weaken the greenback by suppressing borrowing costs to spur recovery, though talk of waning monetary intervention often strengthens the U.S. currency.

Elsewhere in the U.S., data revealed U.S. business inventories rose less than expected.

In a report, Census Bureau reported earlier that U.S. business inventories rose 0.4% in February from 0.4% in the preceding month.

Analysts were expecting a 0.5% reading in February.

The yen, meanwhile, was up against the euro and up against the pound, with EUR/JPY down 0.24% at 140.77, and GBP/JPY trading up 0.25% at 170.47.

The euro slid after ECB President Mario Draghi said Saturday that further gains in the euro would trigger additional monetary easing to keep consumer prices in comfort zones.

"A strengthening of the exchange rate requires further monetary stimulus. That is an important dimension for our price stability," he said.

On Tuesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak; her comments will be closely watched.

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Dollar gains on robust U.S. retail sales report

Investing.com - Investing.com - The dollar firmed against most major currencies on Monday after data revealed U.S. retail sales shot up in March, though concerns the crisis in Ukraine could escalate watered down the greenback's advance somewhat.

In U.S. trading on Monday, EUR/USD was down 0.50% at 1.3816.

The Commerce Department reported earlier that U.S. retail sales rose 1.1% in March, exceeding expectations for a 0.8% gain. Retail sales in February were revised up to a 0.7% increase from a previously estimated 0.3% rise.

Core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, rose 0.7% last month, beating expectations for a 0.5% reading, after a 0.3% gain in February

Consumer demand drives the bulk of U.S. economic output, and the numbers fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to wind down its monthly asset-purchasing program as the year unfolds.

Fed asset purchases, currently standing at $55 billion a month, weaken the greenback by suppressing borrowing costs to spur recovery, though talk of waning monetary intervention often strengthens the U.S. currency.

Elsewhere in the U.S., data revealed U.S. business inventories rose less than expected in February.

In a report, Census Bureau reported earlier that U.S. business inventories rose 0.4% in February from 0.4% in the preceding month.

Analysts were expecting a 0.5% reading in February.

Meanwhile across the Atlantic, the euro slid after ECB President Mario Draghi said Saturday that further gains in the euro would trigger additional monetary easing to keep consumer prices in comfort zones.

"A strengthening of the exchange rate requires further monetary stimulus. That is an important dimension for our price stability," he said.

ECB governing council member and Bank of France governor Christian Noyer said Monday that a weaker euro is desirable, adding that the stronger the currency is the more "accommodating" monetary policy needs to be.

Elsewhere, investors shrugged off data showing that industrial production in the euro area rose 0.2% in February from a month earlier, pushing the annual rate up to 1.7%.

Market expectations had been for an annual gain of 1.5% and a monthly increase of 0.2%.

Geopolitical concerns capped the dollar's advance and fueled demand for safe-haven gold positions.

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine mounted after a deadline set by Ukraine for pro-Russian separatists to exit government buildings they are occupying in the eastern reaches of the country expired on Monday.

The U.S. has indicated that it is prepared to impose more sanctions against Moscow if Russian encroachments in eastern Ukraine continue.

The dollar was up against the yen, with USD/JPY up 0.05% at 101.67, and up against the Swiss franc, with USD/CHF up 0.45% at 0.8799.

The greenback was up against the pound, with GBP/USD down 0.03% at 1.6724.

The dollar was mixed against its cousins in Canada, Australia and New Zealand, with USD/CAD down 0.11% at 1.0968, AUD/USD up 0.14% at 0.9411 and NZD/USD down 0.24% at 0.8670.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was up 0.34% at 79.83.

In the U.S. on Tuesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak; her comments will be closely watched.

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