Fereidun Fesharaki is considered a pioneer in the field of oil and gas, he is currently the chairman of the consulting group FACTS Global Energy. He has held numerous influential posts in the US government and has advised many countries over their oil and gas policy.
CNBC-TV18's Nayantara Rai caught up with Fesharaki who is in India. She started off by asking him about his view on where crude oil prices are headed? According to Fesharaki, crude prices are likely to touch USD 30-40/bbl by Q2 CY15. He also expects it to remain at USD 30-40/bbl for four-five months thereafter.
Below is verbatim transcript of the interview:
Q: How long do you think prices will stay at USD 30-40/bbl?
A: USD 30-40may be for three, four months but in the next five years we will be living in a world of USD 50-80, USD 50-70 oil going up and down. As soon as we get up then people will come back in and the oil prices will have to go down again. We are not going to get to USD 100 oil in our view until 2030.
Q: India is a net oil importer; what should the government do? We have the annual Budget coming up on February 28. How should the exchequer plan for buying crude for the petroleum sector, what kind of a price should you consider?
A: The government has done a really good job in deregulating the prices of oil, maybe not 100 percent but its pretty decent that in the first time the government has been brave enough to do it. I see the same thing to be repeated on the gas sector.
The gas sector prices are still very low; not connected to any realistic market. Gas sector prices in India are connected to US, Canada, Russia; all gas surplus countries, nothing to do with India. India should be worrying about Japan, China, Indonesia and Singapore in neighbourhood. Why worry about the people who are exporting gas.
There is serious chance to take advantage of the lower prices of gas markets today and to
regulate the prices and let the domestic production rise. This is the great opportunity that
India has in front of it and has not been utilised.
Q: You are saying that since crude prices and gas prices will remain globally suppressed, this is the ideal time for the exchequer, for the Indian government to actually come out and say that deregulate gas prices, this is anyway going to be low globally?
A: Yes, correct and possible to put a ceiling on it if you want to. If you worry about the
impact on the power sectors or poor consumers, you can still put some limits on it.
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