Support at 5,850; bet on Dish, Arvind Mills: Experts

Written By Unknown on Sabtu, 27 Juli 2013 | 08.10

The BSE Sensex closed the week, down 56.57 points, at 19,748.19 while the Nifty fell 21.30 points to end at 5,886.20. With the last two days of the July series ending on a negative note, Rahul Mohindar of viratechindia.com offers an estimate of the August series.

"If you look at the past two years, the market has barely been able to hold 6100 for a week or two. So, investors need to keep in mind that the 6050-6100 is a very strong level of resistance. However, bank-stocks and other major heavy weights still seem to be offer a 5-10 percent window as they continue moving down. So my own gut feeling is that at 5,850, there would be some kind of a short-term support, " Rahul Mohindar told CNBC-TV18.

On a host of earnings by banks such as Punjab National Bank (PNB) and Hindustan Unilever (HUL), SP Tulsian of sptulsian.com holds the overall that there is not much cheer about.

Ambuja Cements was undoubtedly the biggest loser this week, going down about 16 percent, but today the stock bounced back a bit. Tulsian estimates the stock to settle at Rs 170-172. "After a huge short-covering on Thursday, investors are yet to taken a fundamental call on the whole structuring of the deal."

On Dish TV 's announcement regarding improvement in margins, Tulsian holds a positive view on the stock on the management's plans to rid the company of debt, high element of depreciation and the company sequential performance. "So taking all this into account, if you have a six-months' view, I think the stock has good potential to rise."

Offering a view on the metals sector, Ambareesh Baliga of Edelweiss, says, " In metals the cycle is still down and the trend will continue at least for the foreseeable quarter or two. So, it is still time to possibly stay out and it is too low for investors to exit except for traders. Investors should wait at least for one more quarter before buying."

On Canara Bank going down 8.5 percent, Tulsian explains, "Maybe it has to do with some concerns or shock on asset quality. I do not think that, except for this fear on the asset quality, there is any other reason for the stock to dip. Overall, PSU banks are subdued with larger banks affected by the fear of asset quality."

The Foreign Investment Promotion Board (FIPB) is to meeting on Monday to decide on the Jet-Etihad deal and the stock reacted positively. Tulsian is positive the deal will go through and that an open offer is likely to get triggered.

Jaiprakash Associates led the some of big result shocks this week and the stock is already down about 17 percent. Tulsian dismisses hopes of any positive announcement from the management. "Little has taken place after the company's announcement of the sale of its 4.8 million tonne Gujarat cement plant. The company's inability to clinch the sale along with high forex and overall debt has caused disappointment."

Arvind Mills is to declare earnings next week. Tulsian estimates the results to be positive. "The company is trying to consolidate its position in its core business and apart from the impact on their real estate foray due to the lull in the Ahmedabad belt, the company's business model is very much in place. It is likely to post better results for the June quarter."

Heidelberg Cement declared earnings today and though the stock was down 8-9 percent,  it did end in the green. Tulsian points out, "I do not think you can compare Heidelberg Cement as an alternative to Ambuja Cements. Though the Rs 8-crore net was a disappointment, the company is on an expansion spree and is raising capacity. So if you really want to have an substitute for Ambuja Cements, it is UltraTech Cement. I do not favour Shree Cement as it has very low tradability, is very thinly traded and exhibits a lot of volatility. Another alternative is Madras Cements, but it does not offer the the advantages of  futures and options availability."



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